Microcosm

Last night's Win Probability Plot, via Fan GraphsIf that doesn't summarize the whole season right there, I'm not sure what else does.

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It's nice to have a smart GM on our side

I failed to post this earlier today, but apparently the Jack Wilson to the Dodgers rumors are heating up. John Perrotto wrote a story about it today, one popped up in the LA Times , and one showed up at a site called PE.com (links via Charlie and BBTF ). I'm still guessing that the trade would center around some lesser prospects (I'm thinking James McDonald, just because we're so pitching poor), but Colletti's been making some crazy quotes that are making people think that he might be willing to part with a top prospect (think James Loney or Matt Kemp) to get Wilson. This quote (from the PE.com article) is the one that have the wheels churning: "We're more open-minded to who we may have to move," Colletti said. [...] Colletti's comments echoed what owner Frank McCourt told me earlier in the week when asked about the possibility of trading some of the kids. He said the ones they will hold onto are "the ones who are prepared to put in the work, l...
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And now for something completely different

As a fun reminder of how little we know at this time of year, Neal Huntington completely denies reports of cutting Nady and selling low on Bay . If that wasn't enough, there's also this interview with him at BP (sent by reader Mark) that includes quotes I swear were lifted from my subconscious like this one: DL : It happened prior to you joining the organization, but can you comment on last season’s acquisition of Matt Morris, primarily your philosophy regarding similar moves? NH : Our philosophy is that every move we make will be logical, rational, and well-researched. They will also be for the long-term benefit of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The quick fixes that have been taken in the past--that you see happen around the league with some teams--are not something we’ll be interested in here. And: We’re in a unique situation. We have lost 90-plus games each of the past three years, but we have an interesting core of guys with two years left on their contracts. We have a good yo...
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Fear is only a sign of weakness

So the market has gone crazy, there's no use in debating that. The thing that I wonder about is why so many people are going all "woe is me" in regards of what this means for the Pirates. Here's the question: If the Pirates had limitless funds to spend, would you want them spent on 8 years of Alfonso Soriano at $136 million? No, you wouldn't. Would you want them spent on 4 years of Justin Speier at $18 million? Or three years of Alex Gonzalez at $14 million? No, you wouldn't. A crazy market only serves to do one thing, create bad deals. The Cubs have been forced to pay $17M/year for Soriano for 8 years when their window for him, Rammy, Lee, and a healthy pitching staff is maybe (maybe!) one or two years. And yeah, they'll be good for those 1 or 2 years, but by the end of this contract my guess is that Soriano is going to be Mo Vaughn, sitting at home watching baseball while being the highest player in the league. To a good GM, it's not worth it. But t...
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