Paul Maholm and the three-slot

It seems that being in grad school has put me permanently one day behind the actual news as it develops. Good thing that nothing that's actually happening is news a this point. I'll get on the ball sooner or later, I promise.

Anyways, this article about Maholm being the "swing-vote" in the rotation from yesterday really bugged the crap out of me. The logic behind it is simple enough: Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell are good pitchers, so if Maholm can keep improving, he'll make a third good pitcher, which means over half the rotation keeps us in games (and you can do the math from there). Of course, things are never that cut and dried. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny were both very good pitchers for the Pirates last year, but the Bucs only went 31-33 in games started by the two of them. Granted, that's a better winning percentage than the team put up on the season, but it's still a losing record. To give you an idea of the type of season that Snell and Gorzo had, they finished 30th and 32nd (respectively) in all of baseball in VORP. That put Snell ahead of Jeff Francis (17 wins) and both of them ahead of John Maine, Andy Pettite, and Dice-K (all 15 game winners), and almost every closer, including JJ Putz.

Both these guys were really (really, really, really) good last year, possibly pitching to a level that they won't match again this year, and the Bucs finished with a losing record with them on the mound. While Maholm may improve, he probably won't match the season that either Gorzo or Snell had last year. That means that if the offense doesn't get better, it really doesn't matter how much Maholm improves, because the record is going to stay about the same.