2007 Preview Part 6

Today's thesis statement: For the love of God, could we just be average on defense?

This is the fourth part of a running season preview in which I look at things that I think have to happen in order for the Pirates to be a decent baseball team in 2007 and decide how likely I think they are to happen. Part 1 can be found here, Part 2 here, Part 3 here, Part 4 here, and Part 5 here.

We all know the Pirates defense was bad last year. Perhaps the best way to quantify it is to remember that the three Pirate starters who pitched all year (Snell, Duke, and Maholm) all among the ten worst BABIP rates in the majors last year. According to BP 2007 (which I finally got my hands on, it should've come last Friday but the mail at Duquesne is always a day slow and I left for break before it got delivered, but I have it now so it's all good), the Pirates were the first team to do that since the 1995 Astros. So let's continue with the BP 2007 thought process and look at the starting defensive players and their Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) for last year and their PECOTAs for next year.

C- Ronny Paulino- 1 FRAA in 2006, 3 FRAA projected in 2007
1B- Adam LaRoche- 8 in 2006, 2 projected in 2007
2B- Jose Castillo- (-23) in 2006, (-5) projected in 2007
3B- Freddy Sanchez- 15 in 2006, 7 projected in 2007
SS- Jack Wilson- 8 in 2006, 8 projected in 2007
LF- Jason Bay- 12 in 2006, 5 projected in 2007
CF- Chris Duffy- (-6) in 2006, (-1) projected in 2007
RF- Xavier Nady- 1 in 2006, (-4) projected in 2007

So yeah, that looks like a pretty average defense to me, at least using FRAA. That seems about right, Wilbur Miller posted a study of the Bucs' defense at OBN a while back and concluded that it was actually downright decent down the stretch without Sean Casey (-2 last year), Jeromy Burnitz (-7), Nate McLouth (-4 in about half as many games as Duffy in center, though Duffy was statistically no huge improvement and then again Jose Bautista came in at 3 runs above average in center for the Duffy-less total to clock in a -1 in about an equal amount of games), and Craig Wilson (-3 at first base) in the field. The biggest improvement has to come from Jose Castillo though. If he can improve as much as BP expects, that's almost two wins right there.

The problem lies in the pitching staff combined with the defense. The Pirates, save Snell, just don't strike that many people out. Duke, Maholm, and even Gorzelanny allow a lot of balls to be put into play. That type of pitching staff requires a good defense behind it, not just an average one. Still, the young pitchers managed to do fairly well last year even with an awful defense behind them. If the defense can just dial things up to "average" in 2007, the results might be fairly noticeable.