2007 Preview: Part 5

The Fifth Starter and Beyond

Once upon a time I started writing a drawn out season preview. This is the fifth part of it and hopefully more will be coming in a timely fashion. Part 1 can be found here, Part 2 here, Part 3 here, Part 4 here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates had rotation problems in 2006. This is not a shocking statement by any means at all. The biggest rotation problem did not arise from having Victor Santos or Shawn Chacon as the fifth starter for most of the season, because almost everyone has a Santos or Chacon filling that role for the better part of the season. The problem came in that for the better part of the season the fourth starter was Oliver Perez, Kip Wells, Santos, or someone of the same ilk. There was only a short part of the season in which the Pirates could trot out Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, and Tom Gorzelanny as their top four starters, as they hope to do this year. If they are successful in that endeavor, it doesn't much matter who the fifth starter is. The problem is that I don't think it's incredibly likely that those four will be able to go the whole year without getting hurt. So let's look at the guys we'll be rotating through the fifth spot and hopefully nowhere else in 2006. Linked to their names are pertinent stats that I may randomly cite, either Baseball Cube or Baseball Reference depending on level of experience.

Tony Armas Jr.- Tony goes first because he's pretty much a lock for the five slot in the rotation. He's also probably the best pitcher out of the group I'm about to look at, so there's that. I don't think Armas is as good as people like to make him out to be, but he'll probably give us an ERA+ of 80 or better over 100-150 innings. Maybe if he's healthy he can exceed that level, but counting on it isn't too wise.

Shawn Chacon- BP is a little more complex. Insanely, I think his ceiling might be a little higher than Armas' (I can't believe I said that), but his floor is much lower. Just two years ago he had an ERA+ of over 100 for a full season between Colorado and the Yankees, though I think his knee issues will probably prevent him from ever reaching that level again. I'm interested to see how he performs in the bullpen, he saved 35 games one year in Colorado but had an ERA+ of 71. I don't know how well his, umm, skills translate to the pen. I guess we'll see.

Sean Burnett- The first "former top prospect" on this list, Burnett flew through the minors, pitched fairly well with the Pirates, blew out his arm, missed all of 2005, and pitched pretty poorly in 2006 with Indianapolis. He might be an option in 2007, but I think he's really got to prove himself over an extended period of time in Indy before he's considered for the rotation in Pittsburgh.

Shane Youman- I've written about Youman in the past, he doesn't seem to have much on the ball and he's got fairly poor peripherals, but he's got a good minor league record and is surprisingly good at getting people out without striking them out. I don't think he'll be a very good long-term starter, but I think he'd be acceptable as a spot starter and long relief guy.

John Van Benschoten- Ahh, former top prospect #2. Also flew through the minors, though less impressively than Burnett did. He pitched very little last year, but he did make some good starts in Indy and Altoona on his way back last year before being shut down again at the end of the year. I'd say he's a longshot at best to spend any time in Pittsburgh this year and if he does, well, things probably aren't going well.

Brian Bullington- He's an odd case. He kind of slogged through the minors without putting up any kind of impressive numbers at all, then suddenly threw things together in 2005 with Indianapolis and looked quite impressive at AAA. Then he came to Pittsburgh, made one appearence, got hurt, and hasn't really pitched at all from then until this spring. He's even less likely than Van Benschoten to pitch in Pittsburgh next year. If you find him in our rotation in August, we're probably on pace for about 53 wins.

Marty McLeary- The feel-good story of the end of 2006 was definitely McLeary, the career minor leaguer who used a September call-up from Indy to make two good starts and get his first two big-league wins. He was actually very good in AAA last year though his minor league track record is not great. He can probably fill the Ryan Vogelsong void in Pittsburgh if necessary this year, but hopefully won't have to be more than a spot starter.

The final verdict? I wouldn't want two of these guys in my rotation for any extended stretch of time. Armas, Chacon, and maybe Burnett or Youman can be serviceable fifth starters while Youman and McLeary would make decent spot starters, but counting on any of these guys for a significant contribution to the rotation is not incredibly smart. We've gotta hope the big four stay healthy because if they don't, things are going to get ugly fast.