Pitching Predictions, sort of

After I did the predictions for the starting position players a while back I decided to take some time off before discussing the pitchers. This was for a couple reasons, first off, someone always seems to get hurt early in Spring Training (thanks, Kip, for filling that quota), second off, it's hard to predict the stats for pitchers, wins, losses, and ERA are all much more arbitrary than AVG/OPB/SLG and stats like K/BB, K/9, and WHIP don't seem to lend themselves as easily to conversation, and finally, it's hard to make predictions for a rotation with such little experience. Anyways, instead of concrete predictions, I'll go with vague assertions about how I think these guys will perform. I'll do starters today, bullpen tomorrow, then finish off the hitters with the bench guys on Wednesday.

Oliver Perez- There might not be any pitcher in the league that terrfies both hitters and fans the way Ollie does. I'm sure you all know the drill, he dazzled everyone in 2004 with his mid-90s heater, his nasty, nasty slider, and a variety of arm angles. His K/BB ratio was 2.95:1, his WHIP was 1.15 and he struck out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. Last year he came to camp without having thrown at all during the winter and never found his the same form, his velocity was down to the low 90s, he couldn't spot his slider the way he could in 2004, his K/BB dropped to 1.39:1, his WHIP accordingly jumped to 1.67 and his Ks per 9 dropped 8.48. We let him pitch this winter and Littlefield proclaimed him to be back to form, but he's only made a couple of appearences this spring. One was against the Manatee County Community College and one was against Canada in the WBC. Against Canada his velocity was down even further (he rarely topped 90) and he couldn't spot a pitch to save his life. He either walked or K'd every batter he faced in his one inning of work (which saw 19 balls and only 16 strikes thrown). This is a pretty dark outlook, but I'd honestly be surprised to see him match his output from last year. There's something wrong with Oliver Perez and I don't think anyone has figured out what it is.

Zach Duke- Again, you know the drill. He was a rookie phenom last year, holding Major League hitters to a lower batting average and slugging percentage than he did their AAA counterparts with almost identical OBPs. He's had some trouble spotting his two-seam fastball this spring, but he threw three solid innings yesterday before losing it and is showing signs of coming around. It's silly to think he'll put up numbers even close to what he did in his fourteen big league starts last year, but that's only because if he did that he'd be handed the Cy Young Award for the next fifteen or so years. Still, Duke is the real deal and assuming that he can bring his control back around I think there's a good chance he'll come in right around his ZiPS projections, 14-10, 3.73 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. I also think that he may exceed the low strikeout expectations that the ZiPS have for him, as he's unfairly pegged as a soft-tosser.

Paul Maholm- Here's where things start to get really scary. Maholm is a guy with a good ceiling that should probably be starting in AAA this year. He had a good run with the Bucs late last summer, but showed some control problems (3.7 BB/9 with the Pirates) and at points last year, seemed to lucky as opposed to good. Besides last year, he's also thrown very few innings total in his career and only has made 12 starts at or above AAA. He's struggled mightily with his control this spring, and I think he's a huge question mark for this year.

Ian Snell- Dominated at times last year in Indy, even throwing a no-hitter. He's also looked pretty good this spring and seems to have learned that third pitch everyone thought he needed. I actually think we may see him outperform Maholm at the outset of 2006 and given Kip Wells absence and the fact that the only other two righties with a shot at the rotation are Vogelsong and Santos, he's going to get a good chance to keep the rotation spot that I'm fairly sure he has locked up at this point. I don't think he's going to disappoint, either. I don't expect every start to be like the dazzling 8 shutout innings he threw at the Astros and the Rocket last September, but I think he'll be OK this year.

Victor Santos- I'd expect him to keep doing what he did in Milwaukee, ERA in the high 4s, approaching 5, WHIP around 1.5. Unfortunately he's the best option for now as the fifth starter, so I'd expect him to keep doing his thing until Sean Burnett is ready.

Sean Burnett- Or as I like to call him "Zach Duke before being Zach Duke was cool." I won't lie, I really like Burnett. He'll start the year out at AAA, as people that miss 16 months of baseball with only 10 career big league starts should. Still, I'd expect him to be ready for a big league spot within 6 weeks of the dawn of the season, and I'd expect that between Maholm and Santos we'll be ready for him in Pittsburgh. He seems like he's completely recovered from his surgeries and while he might not pick up exactly where he left off (after his 4-2, 2.18 ERA start in 2004, not the next five starts he pitched with his injury), I don't think he'll be that far off.

Kip Wells- They're saying Kip will be ready for a return by the All-Star break. I've never ever seen a Pirate come back from a serious injury in the timetable the team predicted, but to this point everything has gone as well with his injury as we could hope. With his two main nemesis (nemesii? nemesises? I don't know), Spin and Lloyd, gone, as well as the injury that very well may have contributed to his control and velocity problems last year completely taken care of, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Kip of 2003 return, especially with money on the line in his walk year. Of course, at this point I'm just happy he's OK. Any pitching he does at all this year will just be gravy.