Tuesday, May 31, 2005

The Stats Geek reedems himself

Thank you, Mr. O'Neill. After a weak effort last week, that bumbling piece of tripe about parity, you've gone and done something like this, and COMPLETELY REDEEMED YOURSELF. This week's topic: the two slot in the Bucco order. As pointed out by the Stats Geek, Jason Bay has the 6th best OPS out of the three slot in the NL (out of 15 people) and tied for the most homers out of the three slot. So why the low RBI total (which prompts bumbling idiots like Savran to babble about our lack of star power and a true three hitter)? A simple reason, from Mr. O'Neill:

Going into Cincinnati, Bay had seen a runner on base in only 41 percent of his at-bats. In only 22 percent had there been a runner in scoring position. The other No. 3 hitters found runners looking back at them from 44 to 62 percent of the time, and runners in scoring position from 25 to 38 percent of the time.
Quite simply, the Pirates production in front of Bay is well below average. And despite the recent drop in production from Matt Lawton, it's not his fault because:
Pirates No. 2 hitters are hitting .167 with a .202 on-base average and .230 slugging average. That's last in the league. Pirates pitchers, meantime, face No. 2 men who hit .304 with a .367 OBA and .510 SLG. That's twice as good.
Yep, there's the problem. So the solution? Well, earlier in the year, the Stats Geek mentioned Mackowiak was a good solution because of his low DP rate, and he goes back to Mack-o-whack today. He suggests something I was thinking about suggesting, batting Castillo second. His point is something I've been saying for a long time (emphasis added by me):
Bunch your best hitters. Runs are gratifying.
Which is more intimidating? Lawton, JWilson, Jason Bay or Lawton, Mackowiak, Bay? Lawton, Tike, and Bay or Sanchez, Castillo, and Bay? It doesn't matter if you're a prototypical #2 hitter or not. Last year while watching the LCS's I noticed a funny thing, the two hitters of the final four teams left. The Yankees batted Alex Rodriguez there, the Cards Larry Walker, the Astros Carlos Beltran, and the Sox Mark Bellhorn. I realize that we don't have the firepower of those teams, but they weren't wasting their two slot on Miguel Cairo, or Adam Everett, or Bill Mueller, or Edgar Renteria, people you would more associate with a two spot in the order. The four best teams in baseball were bunching hitters together (look at Bellhorn's numbers, he's homer or nothing, not a 2 hitter by common definition, look at Renteria's from last year, only a .324 OBP, numbers don't lie). All four of those teams batted guys from 1-5 that could HIT. They didn't give a thought to who could bunt a batter over or who could steal a base, they thought about who could HIT, and that's where our focus needs to be. Thank you, Stats Geek for bringing this to light in a public forum.