The off day

So the trip is over. We went to Houston, the one place we win less than anywhere (which is pretty impressive seeing as how we're the Pirates and we don't really win much anywhere) and took two out of three. We went to Arizona and took three out of four from a team that had been among the hottest is baseball. We went to San Francisco and took two out of three from a team that swept us just a little over a week earlier. Thanks to this road trip we're no longer the lowest scoring team in baseball. The question is, what does it mean?

Well, Dejan is excited, and the players seem to be too. Rowdy at Honest Wagner points out that:

If you wake this morning in San Francisco and read the paper, you don't read about how great those Bucs are playing. You read about how your team is in a terrible funk and lost to the Pirates.

And that's pretty obvious here. Unfortunately, there is at least some truth to that viewpoint I think. Houston is struggling mightily. They're one of the teams to have scored less runs than us and they play all their home games in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. It's true that Arizona is in second, one game behind the Dodgers right now, but despite their 20-15 record, they've been outscored 164-149. Using Baseball-Reference.com's formula for Pythagorean winning percentage (about what their record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed, over the course of the season this is usually accurate to within a few games) they're playing more like a 16-19 team, and chances are this will even out over the season (by comparison, the same formula puts the Pirates at 14-19, the Cardinals at 20-13, both accurate to within one game). The Giants are old and have lost to injury their ace, their closer, and the reigning MVP. Their bullpen is pathetic, and seeing as how on Tuesday we saw 9 innings of their bullpen, at least one win should've been automatic. So to recap, Houston is bad, Arizona has a good record but is not really playing that well and has been lucky to this point in the year, and San Fran is not only old, they are crippled by injuries as well. But of course, there are still positives.

Hey, we won 7 out of 10 on the road. We scored a ton of runs. We lead the majors in home runs in May, even without our team leader in homers for the last 4 1/2 games. Aside from Ollie, the starting pitching has been very, very good. Dave Littlefield ripped off Billy Beane in November, and then turned around and ripped off Mark Shapiro. Now instead of a malcontent singles hitting catcher that played average defense we have a solid starter that is working with our young guys (according to the radio Mark Redman and Dave Williams talk about pitching every day and it seems to have rubbed off) and a lead off hitter that actually shows some power. Ty Wigginton actually has an extra base hit in each of his last three starts (and Kris Benson still sucks). Jack Wilson, though he may not be hitting over .200 yet, got key hits in each of the two wins over San Fran. On Tuesday with two outs and a man on in the sixth he singled. Jason Bay followed with his game changing three run dinger. On Wednesday when we only had one hit, he doubled and became the tying run, leaving the door open for Wiggintons go ahead blast. Jason Bay is tearing the cover off the ball and seems to have no intention of suffering a sophomore slump. The Daryle Ward home run zone has expanded. I think I saw him hit a pitch out over the plate for a homer this week.

Bottom line: this road trip has been a ton of fun for everyone involved (except Houston, Arizona, and San Francisco), but the teams we played weren't very good and probably overlooked us (wouldn't you? I mean, you guys were all there in April). This upcoming series is huge. The Brewers are hot, and the Brewers will never overlook us, not with the way we've owned them the past couple years (especially at PNC). If the weather is nice, chances are there will be nice sized crowds at these games. For whatever reason, the Bucs are off to an awful start at home for the third straight year (last year they turned it around and finished close to .500 in the Burgh, the year before they didn't). Good teams win at home, that's all their is to it. Home field advantage is important for a reason. The Pirates have played well in the last ten days, but if this Pirates team wants believers, they have to start now, in Pittsburgh, by taking at least two from the scorching hot Brewers. No more excuses either. Win at home now or the last 10 days will be meaningless.