Thoughts for a rainy day

Todays game was rained out, so as per some recent conversations I've had and the basic need to not be so entirely negative (which has pretty much been the theme of this blog since it started) I'm going to asses where the Pirates are, why I think the Pirates are where they are, and where they're headed (this means I won't tear apart today's defense of McClendon in the PG by Gene Collier, because a.) it's not as stupid as Smizik's, b.) I hate being redundant, and c.) I just like Gene Collier more than Bob Smizik). So let's make some bold headings and break this thing down.
Warning: This is really really really long.

Where the Pirates are right now
They've just opened up what is now almost certain to be the 13th consecutive losing year in Pittsburgh. If they play the rest of the season the way this first 2 1/2 weeks has gone, not only will this be a losing year but it's going to be the worst year of this losing streak that started before the lives of every single kid that will play Little League in America this year.

Why the Pirates are so bad (the money answer)
Several reasons, first off, the obvious. The Pirates are on a tight budget. The Marlins, A's, and Twins have all proved it's possible to win on a tight budget, but it's not easy, especially with the hole dug by Cam Bonifay. When Dave Littlefield took over in 2001 he inherited a team on a budget paying Kevin Young $6 million a year, Jason Kendall $5 million (on a contract that escalated every season to a peak of $8 million+ last year), Derek Bell $5 million, Pat Meares almost $4 million a year (with a debilitating injury that kept him from every playing again), and Omar Olivares $4 million to have the highest ERA of any starter in the NL. The bottom line is, Littlefield inherited a team on a tight budget that was flushing money down the toilet faster than they could get it. That meant his teams were going to be young. This would be fine, except Bonifay also left the minors devoid of talent. This left Littlefield with what we've seen the past few years, free agent castoffs and mediocre minor league talent, some which has blossomed, but most which hasn't.

The Lloyd Problem
In 2001 Pittsburgh ran Gene Lamont out of town. They started interviewing for the opening, interviewing people such as local baseball lifer (and current A's manager) Ken Macha, and defending World Champion manager Terry Francona. It was rumored that the Pirates resident color man/baseball guru Bob Walk asked for an interview and was turned down. Despite all these seemingly solid candidates, they settled on Lloyd McClendon. Lloyd's only coaching experience was 4 years as Lamont's hitting coach. This meant he would be cheap. Lloyd provided a link to the team's most recent glory years (he was a very likeable utilityman on the division championship teams in the early 90s that had a knack for getting clutch hits). Lloyd also added a positive story line for a franchise that had very little positive going for it, he was the team's first ever black manager. In June 2001 the reign of Cam the Terrible was brought to an end, and Dave Littlefield was quickly hired. I would guess that he asked management for permission to hire his own manager (which is a standard MO for Major League Baseball, a new GM means a new manager probably 9 out of 10 times). He was obviously turned down for reasons which I can only speculate. My guess is that first off, Lloyd was popular with the fans (the base-stealing incident was early in the summer of 2001), cheap, and firing him during or after his first year (from a team that was simply awful) would just be bad press (I'm not trying to be racist, I'm just trying to piece things together). That means that going into 2002 Lloyd would be untouchable. In 2002 they won 10 more games than they did in 2001, keeping him untouchable. In 2003 they finished up 54-50, to improve Lloyd's record again, and keeping him untouchable. That brings us to our next bold heading.

Why wasn't Lloyd fired after last year?
If Lloyd was untouchable through 2003, he shouldn't have been through 2004. A team that showed a ton of promise was inconsistent all year (hot in May and July, cold in June and August). They didn't always live up to Lloyd's promise of a team that would always play hard, and Lloyd was even quoted several times as saying things like "Well, what do you want? We're supposed to lose to the Astros. Their payroll is much higher, all we can do is hope to not get blown out." True or not, sarcastic or not, this is not something your manager should be saying in public. And yet he wasn't fired. So what's the reasoning?

Why Chris Duffy is in Indianapolis or How Dave Littlefield stopped screwing around and decided to build for the future.
The beginning of this year has been despicable and is leaving people with questions. If we're so bad with these players and our AAA team is supposed to be so good, why not ditch Redman and Ward and one of our average catchers and a couple starters and take a good long look at Chris Duffy and Ryan Doumit and Brad Eldred and Zack Duke and Brian Bullington and Bobby Bradley? I can't say for sure, but I have my guesses. After last year, Littlefield looked at his team and looked at his minors. The cream of the crop wasn't going to be ready this year, and Burnett and Van Benschoten were both going to miss a year with arm surgeries. Obviously 2005 won't be the year to have the changing of the guard. Since players like Daryle Ward, Tike Redman, Ty Wigginton, and Rick White are cheap, Littlefield figures he can he can plug the gap that this year presents without having to worry how they play or if they develop. This year he's given Lloyd the rope to hang himself with and Lloyd is obliging. In the past, a keen observer would watch Lloyd screw up on the same things for a week and then fix what he was doing wrong. I'm guessing Littlefield had weekly talks with him about what he was and wasn't doing right as a manager, and I'm guessing those talks have stopped. Lloyd is in complete control of the team and his future. This way, Littlefield can make a public example of how bad Lloyd is and easily ax him at the break or after the year. So why not bring the young guys up anyways? Well, during Lloyd's tenure Pirates fans have seen Kris Benson, Kip Wells, and Aramis Ramirez, all can't miss prospects, miss in Pittsburgh. We've seen Brian Giles and Jason Kendall so soured on the Pirates they went out of town kicking and screaming about how awful Pittsburgh was. Oliver Perez is in the process of being ruined, as is Mike Gonzalez. Rob Mackowiak, Jack Wilson, and Craig Wilson might never reach their potential in Pittsburgh. What's easy to see is that Littlefield doesn't want to bring up one more can't miss prospect in this terrible losing atmosphere. He knows that he has a crop of pitchers, between Perez, Burnett, Van Benschoten, Duke, Snell, Bullington, Bradley, Peterson, and Maholm to put together a rotation that has the potential to mature into an absolutely dominating group. He knows that with Jason Bay, Jack Wilson, Brad Eldred, Jose Castillo, Freddy Sanchez, Ryan Doumit, Chris Duffy and maybe even Craig Wilson and Mackowiak he's going to have a lineup that will be able to put runs on the board. He knows this isn't going to happen with Lloyd McClendon managing, and he knows that the longer these players are exposed to Lloyd's teams, the better the chance is that they all turn into Chad Hermanson. The problem is this year. This year is a gap year. A bunch of cheap mediocre players are filling up the lineup. They aren't playing hard for a manager they don't like, and that makes for some ugly baseball. Next year the team might not be very good, but they'll be young and there will be hope in Pittsburgh again. Best case scenario Lloyd gets fired in June this year and the young guys get some playing time as we come down the stretch, meaning next year might not be completely lost.

The Bottom Line
This year will not be the year the Pirates finish .500. The year is being sacrificed by Littlefield as the final cleanup of the mess he was handed by Cam Bonifay in 2001. When Bonifay was canned, Peter Gammons said it would be 2006 until anyone dug out of his hole and right now in April 2005 we can only hope that Dave Littlefield still has us on schedule. If Littlefield has us on the schedule that I think he does, in 2006 we'll see a team lead by an electric young pitching staff lead by Perez, Burnett, Van Bencshoten, and Duke that is well managed and plays hard every day. We might even see a winning season if everyone develops and heals according to schedule. Just don't hold your breath for 2005.

Of course I could be wrong, but if I am, that means Littlefield has no discernible vision whatsoever and this team is in more trouble than any of us could possibly imagine.