Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Prospects? Prospect.

You know what's a pretty bad sign? When I see the headline, "Prospects trying to make a name for themselves," and I have to stop and think who "prospects" might be referring to before I read the article. As it turns out, the article is about what you'd expect after the only off-day of the spring; it's fluff about every minor leaguer who's not on the casual fan's radar. I'm not going to talk about them, because they make me sad. Instead, I'm going to spend some time talking about our prospect. You know the one. McCutchen.

Honestly, I'm mildly terrified that putting McCutchen in AAA this year is going to ruin him, or at least set him back a year. I know that I'm the same guy that wants Steve Pearce fast-tracked (or, semi-fast tracked since DL started him slowly, but you get the point) to the majors this year and maybe my thinking Cutch isn't ready for AAA is inconsistent with that, but let's call it a gut feeling based on the fact that really shouldn't have been in AA last year. He had a pretty good year with Hickory in 2006, hitting .291/.356/.446. Since he was only 19 that year and he showed some good plate patience for a player of that age in any full-season league, people were rightly very optimistic. Still, he didn't set the world on fire in low-level A-ball. He got a call-up to Altoona at the end of the summer because the Curve were in the playoff hunt and he killed the ball, but he didn't even have 100 plate appearances there. Between that and a hot spring in 2007 that actually had people clamoring for the 20-year old to start the season in Pittsburgh, Littlefield skipped him past Lynchburg for good and sent him to Altoona to start 2007. Things were pretty ugly there, except for his walk rate (which stayed about the same as it had been the year before) and his stolen bases (a Nate McLouth like 17/18). His OPS was only .710 in Altoona and while he did close his time there out with a hot streak, he got mostly destroyed by right-handed pitching (splits here). He was again promoted to help Indy with their playoff push, and he didn't fare terribly well their either.

Now, I understand that a prospect doesn't necessarily need to put monster numbers up at every or any spot along the way to become a good major leaguer. At the same time, I'd like some evidence that the guy knows what he's doing at a level before promoting him along the way because it's what the fans want (I am, of course, talking about Littlefield and not Huntington). Maybe I'm worried after doing some research into Corey Patterson's early career (and yes, I know Patterson fits a different player profile at this point in his career) for a FanHouse post, but if a guy is constantly playing way over his head, he's going to have a hard time catching up and he might not ever do it. McCutchen, being a high school pick, is on a bit of a different time scale than a guy like Pearce. I'd simply like to see him repeat his hot finish in AA over a month or two in AA to be sure he's ready for AAA before tossing him into things headfirst. The emphasis should be bringing him along right, not bringing him along fast.