2008 Preview: Jason Bay

Was Jason Bay's 2007 a fluke or a trend?

Honestly, this is the most straightforward preview I'm going to write. Jason Bay had an awful 2007 in which his second half was nearly as bad as Adam LaRoche's first half. There's really only one of two explanations for the year he had last year. Either he was hurt and his terrible numbers were a fluke or his bad hitting was the beginning of a bad downhill trend. If he was hurt and that was the only problem, he should have no trouble going back to being one of the most productive hitters in the National League and he'll probably top Adam Dunn as the most sought after name on the trade market this year. If last year was the start of a trend, he'll be untradeable, Nate McLouth and Steve Pearce would probably make better starters, and Neal Huntington will wander around his office muttering, "I've made a huge mistake." We've already talked about this at great length here and other people have tackled the question elsewhere. We can break down the salient points.

Backing up the theory that Bay was injured last year is the fact that he was injured last year. He had his knee scoped in the off-season, got to camp late, and looked very uncomfortable both in the field and at the plate once we got into about June. He even missed a bunch of games at the end of the season once all was lost, which is something he almost never did. There was certainly a problem with that left knee last year and it's not really a stretch to think it could've affected his swing. Bay also has said that the knee feels much better this spring, which is a pretty strong indication that it was bothering him at the end of last season.

Of course, it was just his left knee that was injured. It wasn't his plant leg and you wouldn't think that the left knee would affect a righty's swing or power as much. Both he and his doctors said he was good to go before last season started and even after missing time at the end of the year last year, he didn't have more surgery on the knee (please note that I'm not doubting his knee hurt, just wondering how much it affected him). Baseball Prospectus broke down his hit charts and stats in July last year and found pretty strong evidence that he was losing bat speed at a rather alarming rate and if that's the case, it's probably not coming back. His early career does fit the profile of a Bobby Higginson/Jeff Conine type player. That doesn't mean that's the type of player he'll end up being, but it doesn't bode well, either.

Honestly, there's no way to answer this question without seeing Bay play this year. It's certainly the most critical question for the Pirates in 2008 and possibly for the next few years because if Bay plays well, he's almost certain to be traded for prospects to help rebuild the system. I will caution that Bay is a slow starter like LaRoche and he hasn't heated up until May in either of the last two years, so trying to figure out if he's going to snap out of his funk before then may be premature. Personally, I think it was clear that the knee bothered him to some extent last year. He won't hit .240 or slug .418 again, and I think you can take that to the bank. The real question is whether or not there was an underlying problem and whether he'll be Jason Bay again or if we'll have to settle for another Xavier Nady.