Perception problems

To continue on the "It's too early for judgment" theme that both Charlie (if you haven't checked his "Five Principles" post out yet, I recommend you do) and I have been hitting on repeatedly this winter, I think that the next important thing to talk about is the difference between what we see in the Pirates and what everybody else sees.

Being objective as a sports fan is not easy. I like to think I do a pretty decent job of it when writing this blog, but there are still certain subjects that I have irrational opinions on thigs including, but certainly not limited to, Andy Van Slyke and Matt Morris. Still, subjective opinions are what I think have created a lot of the anger that's coming from the fans and is directed at Huntington, who's been on the job a whopping three months.

One of the things I keep seeing repeated over and over is how we have to deal Snell and Gorzelanny based on the market for Santana (who will likely bring three top prospects) and Danny Haren (who netted Oakland six minor leaguers from Arizona yesterday). I'm not here to doubt the value of Gorzo or Snell, who are probably the two most talented and valuable Pirates right now. But comparing them to Haren in a hypothetical trade isn't a productive line of thought. Haren's pitched three straight years in Oakland in which he's gone over 200 innings, had a WHIP of 1.22 or lower, an above average ERA, a K/9 rate between 6.7 and 7.6 (raising each year), and between 3 and 4 strikeouts per walk. Oh, and he's only 26. He's not only a viable second option to Santana, he might end up giving the D'Backs more than the Yankees or Red Sox will get out of Santana. On the other hand, Snell has had one mediocre year and one good year in which he tailed off in the second half. He gets pounded by lefties, he often seems to hit a wall around the sixth inning, and his control isn't always great. And yeah, he's crazy. Gorzelanny only has one season in the majors to his credit and he's got some health issues. Again, don't get me wrong, they're both good, young pitchers and I have a lot of hope for both of them. I just don't know how much immediate value they have to a contender right now because of the lingering questions about them.

Take off your Pirate cap for a minute and think about the players we have to offer a contender this year (and it has to be a contender because if any of these guys were useful for rebuilding, we wouldn't be trading them). Jason Bay had a monster 2005, a pretty good 2006 (that was helped out by a huge month of May), and a terrible 2007. He's got health questions, swing questions, and a bunch of other lingering questions. On top of that, he just MIGHT be a great addition to some team and the Pirates know that, which means he's not coming cheaply. I wouldn't touch him if I were a GM. Nady's a platoon player hamstring issues. No one has any idea what Nate McLouth is actually capable of. Jack Wilson is an awful hitter with a good first half of 2004 and a good second half of 2007 to his resume. No one on this team had the ability to help the freaking Pirates win games in 2007 so why should someone assume that these players will help a contender in any significant fashion in 2008? The team was so bland and bad that Freddy Sanchez, hollow .300 average and all, was our All-Star.

I'm not saying Huntington shouldn't be trying to remake the team. He should be and by all indications, that's exactly what he's trying to do. I'm just saying that not only is rebuilding a team difficult, the Pirates are in an especially dire place and it's probably worse than we think. We know all of the good sides of these players because we have see them as Pirate fans to have any shred of hope for the team. But if they were really as good as we imagine, wouldn't the Pirates be a whole lot better?