Tuesday, August 21, 2007

The Pirates should trade Freddy Sanchez

It's been far too long since I've tried to drum up some spirited conversation around here, so that's what I'm going to do here.

We always talk about how Dave Littlefield is inept at diagnosing which players he should hold on to and which he should sell high on. Some players reach a certain peak that they're unlikely to reproduce, at which point a team like the Pirates should trade them. I think Freddy Sanchez is that peak. "Blasphemy!" you're yelling. "Freddy is one of the only good things on this team!" you implore. But let's look a little closer at things.

Freddy was very good last year, there's no doubting that. But he really wasn't great. A .344 average is fantastic, but his OBP was only 34 points higher at .378 and his slugging percentage wasn't bad at .473, but Freddy's not going to hit .344 or hit 53 doubles every year, both numbers that helped his slugging percentage. I am by no means trying to be a stick in the mud here, just putting the numbers into a little more perspective beyond the batting title, which really means very little. His OPS+ for the year (his OPS adjusted for park factor against the league average) was 117, which roughly means he was 17% better than the average batter in 2006. Good, not great.

This year, even with his huge recent hot streak, his OPS+ is 102, meaning he's been almost an exactly average hitter over the course of the year. You can point to the recent hot streak as evidence he was hurt at the beginning of the year, but he's not an .878 OPS player (as he's been since July 1st), nor is he the type of guy that will slug .514 on a season (again, as he has since July 1st). You could point to Jack Wilson's appendicitis, asthma, and hamstring injuries as evidence that he's not a .270/.320/.375 hitter, but eventually, all you have to go on is what actually happened. Similarly, Freddy has a bit of an injury history, missing a big chunk of time in 2003 and 2004 while battling foot and ankle problems. What he's done this year is what he's done, counting on him to be healthy over a full season is not a sure bet.

On top of everything, Freddy is not a young guy in baseball terms. He's 29 this year and playing a sport in which players usually peak around 28 or 29. Given his injury history, it's entirely possible that he won't be a guy that will get better past his peak age and in fact, he may be a guy that will break down early.

Please don't get me wrong, I like Freddy Sanchez. He's a good baseball player. He's an inspirational person. He's a good guy. I wish the Pirates had more players like him. But I'm making a very specific point here. While he is a good baseball player, he's not as good of a baseball player as a lot of people think. He is the exact type of player that GMs overvalue; he's a two-time All-Star, a batting champion, a career .300 hitter, and he has the ability to play a couple positions, but who doesn't get on base a ton and might not age well. He will probably be at his peak value after this season, because if he hits .310 this year a lot of people will view that as validation that he's not a fluke, which some people thought after that .344 year last year.

As much as I would hate to see Freddy go, we have to remember that the Pirates are a rebuilding team. I watched Indianapolis the other night. It's not pretty. Freddy Sanchez is a good player that might bring a great player's return. That's exactly how you rebuild.