The second half outlook

Actually, the second half has already started, but everyone likes to call all the games after the All-Star break the second half, so let's just go with that. Are the Pirates a second half team? Can they get to .500? Can they compete in the second half? Let's try and answer those questions.

The Pirates finished the first half at 40-48. That puts them on pace for 73-74 wins. I can't find the exact post in which I said this, but my pre-season guess was 73 wins. So that means that in order for me to think they're going to play better than that, I have to have seen something from the Pirates in the first that I didn't expect to see that makes me believe that they're going to be better in the second half. I'm not going to lie. I haven't seen that.

For every player that's had an encouraging first half (Snell, Gorzelanny, Nady), there's at least one that's had a disappointing first half (Duke, Bay, LaRoche, Paulino). Maybe the under performers will start to play better, but what's to say the overachievers won't come back to earth? It's easy to let this last stretch make things seem rosy from here on out, but 13 games isn't even a tenth of the season. It's great to see the Pirates play well over this stretch, but it's just not enough for me to call them a good team.

I'm not trying to be negative here and I'm sorry if that's how I'm coming off, but as likely as Bay is to heat up, Nady is just as likely to cool off a bit. As likely as Duke is to find his stride after his injury or Maholm is to keep up his good work of late, Snell and Gorzelanny are to come back to earth. Not that they're going to be bad, mind you, just that they'll be a little more in line with what's expected. LaRoche might heat up? Doumit might cool off. There are still a lot of things that have to go right and stay right for this to be a team that's eight games over .500 in the second half. I know they came close last year, but they had a statistically unlucky first half last year that was followed up by a statistically lucky second half. Their final record last year was much more indicative of them as a team than their 37-32 second half.

What I'm going for is that I still think this is an inherently flawed baseball team. I see people asking if I think the Bucs should be buyers or sellers at the deadline. The answer is that if you really think about this team as a whole, and not just about the last 13 games, do you see them contending this year or next year? Do you see the addition of Walker and McCutchen and maybe Bixler and Pearce as the last pieces of the puzzle by 2009? I don't. Until that puzzle is together, we have to be sellers. But who do you sell off of this team? Someone might be interested in Chacon, but how much could he really bring? Last year he brought a soon-to-be free agent Craig Wilson to the Yankees. He might be slightly more valuable now, but not much. What about Torres? His value is an all-time low right now. Jack Wilson? I'm sorry, but anyone that takes him in a trade will view it as them doing us a favor. We could trade Jason Bay, but that's a white flag for the organization, a sign we're starting over. I know that won't fly with the front office or the ownership. Besides, do you trust Littlefield to do the right thing if he trades Bay? He's spent a year and a half trying to build up the bullpen, and look at the bullpen.

I'm not trying to be hopelessly bleak. There are a lot of players on this team I like, probably more than on Pirate teams of the recent past. I'm just not sold that this team is a contender yet, or close to it and I don't think the people running the team know how to get it there.