Stats Geek on Armas

The Stats Geek dedicates his latest article to our newest #5 man (in name only, I'd bet he pitches out of the four slot to alternate lefties and righties), Tony Armas Jr. Like some other stuff I've read about Armas, the prevailing opinion seems to be "better than Chacon" and "look at his career ERA, he can't be that bad." The major flaw I see in that thinking is that Armas, at 29, already appears to be on the downslope of his career. He hasn't posted a full season ERA+ over 100 since he was 23 (100 is league average, ERA+ explanation here) and in fact, in a pitcher's park (EDIT: ERA+ is independent of park factors, so the fact he pitched at RFK doesn't matter here. I knew that, but it kind of slipped my mind when I wrote the post, still, the point is that he's sucked lately and that doesn't change.) the past two seasons his ERA+ has been in the 80s, which is very Chacon-like (Chacon's ERA+ for us last year was 82 while Victor Santos' was 79). Is it impossible for a guy that's 29 years old to regain some of the form from his younger years? Of course not. But watching the Pirates my whole life, I can think of plenty of guys that didn't.