Fun with lineup tools

As I like to do at this time of year, I've been playing around with Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool and the ZiPS projections to take a look at the Pirates 2007 offense. As usual, everything is subject to change with a trade or something and I do know that this is incredibly hypothetical stuff we're dealing with here.

The first lineup I looked at is the one I guessed at the other day, Duffy, Wilson, Sanchez, Bay, Nady, Doumit, Castillo, Paulino, and using Duke's 2006 hitting stats for the pitcher. Using the 1998-2002 model, the tool predicts 4.361 runs per game for that lineup, or about 706 runs over162 games. That was the closest I could get to the 680 that the Replacement Level Yankees Blog got using CHONE projections and Diamond Minds, and I think it's pretty close considering that that exact lineup won't play every day and whatever we use off of the bench likely won't match the production, plus there are differences in the projection systems and line-up tools to consider.

Anyways, from there the next logical choice is to plug Jose Bautista in for Jose Castillo. Just putting him into the seven spot raises the runs per game to 4.461, or about 723 over the course of the season. A twenty run difference over the course of the season is pretty significant. If we put Bautista in center and at lead-off for Duffy and leave Castillo at second, the number is 4.378. Think about that; batting order (which is actually a pretty small factor in runs scored) aside, Jose Castillo is being projected to be a worse offensive player than Chris Duffy next year. If Castillo is going to have a Freddy Sanchez type season next year where he smashes the projections, he should play. The problem is that I don't see any reason to think that would happen. Even with his VWL numbers, it's best the Pirates keep him on a short leash this year.

So where to next? It's not something we're going to see next year, but seeing Brent Lillibridge jump so high on John Sickle's list earlier this week intrigued me and because the ZiPS projections are Major League level predictions, I decided to plug Lillibridge's ZiPS in for Jack Wilson's. Amazingly, the runs per game jumps to 4.504 (730/162 games). So if the ZiPS are accurate, Jack Wilson is worth someting like 7 runs per 162 games less than a guy that hasn't played above the A level yet. I'm not recommending vaulting Lillibridge over AA and AAA to play this year because that would be stupid, but I suppose this is a little more reason to keep a closer eye on him this year and more evidence that Jack Wilson isn't as valuable as this team makes him out to be.

So now let's have some fun. We'll keep Wilson in the line-up because as I've said before, there's no way Lillibridge will see much (if any) action in Pittsburgh this year. So let's re-arrange the line-up a bit and plug Adam LaRoche into it (the 2007 Braves ZiPS are here). Our lineup will be Bautista, Sanchez, Bay, LaRoche, Nady/Doumit, Paulino, Duffy, Wilson. It's hard to quantify Nady and Doumit's numbers because as platoon players you'd hope their numbers will be a little higher hitting against only pitching they're more comfortable with. We'll play it safe and use Nady's projections for the spot (the higher of the two). The number per game we get there is 4.644, approximately 752 runs over the course of 162 games. If you assume that Duffy will be traded as well as Gonzo, we can put Castillo back into the line-up (presuming a Bautista move to center), but the number per game is still 4.609.

Finally, we'll toss Melky Cabrera into the mix (Yankees ZiPS here). We'll put him at leadoff and bump Bautista, Sanchez, and Bay down a slot from the LaRoche line-up. Melky's lineup gives us 4.569 runs per game (740/162). Given that he's 22, I think that's an acceptable option if LaRoche is too expensive.

I know this isn't a perfect way to do things. I know that projections aren't set in stone because they're just that, projections. I know this doesn't take into account a lot of factors like injuries, off days, etc. and that Cabrera and LaRoche's ZiPS are for them in the Yankees and Braves line-ups, respectively. I've only included the runs per 162 games number to give a rough idea of how much one player can impact the line-up over the course of the season. Because of all of the previous factors mentioned I don't think it's an accurate number of how many runs the Pirates will score this year. Still, the point is that adding just one player into the line-up can have a big effect on things. It might even have a bigger effect than what I accounted for because by making Doumit and Nady platoon players; their numbers should be a little better than what they're projected for. This is just another way of showing what everyone's been saying for a long time now; standing pat is not going to make this team better but there are moves available that will.