The 2006 Outlook

Here's the thing about the 2006 Pittsburgh Pirates, they might be a really fun team to watch this year. Then again, they might not. They probably won't contend under any forseeable circumstances, but that doesn't mean they can't have a good year. For some reason in the last week or so, I've been feeling a lot more positive than I usually do about the Pirates, though it might just be due to the opening of the season.

Ever since PNC Park opened, all Pirates fans have really wanted was a year where we got to see a bunch of young (or at least fairly young) players get a shot to play and play hard and maybe even get better as the year went on. With exceptions made for a couple individual players, we don't ever really get to see that. On the surface, it doesn't really look like we'll get to see it this year either, our biggest offseason "upgrades" were Joe Randa, who stands in the way of Freddy Sanchez and Jose Bautista, Sean Casey, who makes Craig Wilson a full time right fielder where he stands in McLouth's way, and Jeromy Burnitz, who gets in Craig's way in right. Three lumbering, over the hill guys with sunny dispositions that the team hopes will bring some fans to the park. If these three stay healthy, you can be sure another year of typical Pirates baseball will ensue.

And yet, how can one expect those three to stay healthy over the course of the season? The youngest by far is Casey at 31, and he's already breaking down. Nate McLouth played so well this spring the team simply couldn't avoid giving him a roster spot and Bautista very nearly did the same (in fact, it could probably be argued that he did plenty this spring with a .345/.431/.691 line in 55 ABs). My point is that even with all the money invested in the Terrible Trio we imported this offseason, there's a distinct possibility that certain guys make themselves impossible to ignore once the season starts (I use this term loosely, 12 hours ago I would've told you it was impossible for Jody Gerut not to make the team out of camp and Littlefield pissed all over that today). The point is, I think the guys capable of making this an exciting team to watch next year exist and I don't think it's a stretch that we see them this year.

Of course, there's also the pitching. The staff this year has the potential to be one of the most electrifying combination of pitchers we've seen in Pittsburgh in years. Yeah, the fact that Zach Duke's lackluster spring has lasted this long scares me a little bit. Yeah, I hate the fact that all of my faith in return to form for Ollie is placed on one spring training start. Yeah, I'm not sure I have any idea what to expect from Ian Snell. Yeah, Victor Santos is in the rotation. But Zach Duke has good stuff, Ollie's start on Wednesday had people absolutely buzzing in a way that I don't recall seeing since that game against the 'Stros towards the end of '04 when Houston was on an unstoppable roll towards the Wild Card and Ollie stopped them in their tracks with something like a 14-K masterpiece (plus he's throwing a split-fingered changeup that looks filthy), Snell certainly seems to be motivated by all of the shit talked on him by the organization and has even learned a third pitch, and Santos is only a stopgap until at the very most, Kip is ready to comeback for his Jason Schmidt like farewell, but will most likely be replaced by Gorzellany or Burnett quick enough that in two years most people will forget that Victor Santos ever wore a Pirates jersey. I haven't even mentioned Paul Maholm.

So here's the bottom line on the 2006 Pirates, if things break in the correct manner (as in, Randa and Burnitz and Casey get hurt or perform so poorly that they just HAVE to be taken out of the lineup) I really think we have a decent young baseball team on our hands. Good enough to beat the Cards this year? No. Good enough hang around .500? Well, I've seen stranger things. Even if things don't break the right way, it's possible that our pitching could carry us. Then again, it's also a very (very very very) distinct possibility that Casey, Burnitz, and Randa don't get hurt and don't play well enough to be traded, but aren't bad enough to lose their spots in the lineup. And yeah, with all the mostly unknown qualities involved with our pitching staff, the wheels could definitely come off. Hell, there might not even be wheels. And yeah, I do realize that what I'm describing here is a "IF these guys get hurt or play bad and lose their spots and IF these other guys step up and fill their slots like the MIGHT be able to and IF the pitching is as good as we think it is, then there MIGHT be a chance that we avoid losing more than 81 games this year," is similar to this famous exchange from Dumb and Dumber:

Lloyd: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.

That's all I'm saying. There's a chance. It's not really a good one and there's a ton of IFs and MIGHTs, but we're Pirates fans. There's a chance, and at this point, it's probably greedy to ask for more.

More trimming

The Pirates made a couple of roster moves this afternoon that go a long way towards clearing up what the final roster will look like though they don't go quite as far in making me think that Dave Littlefield is competent. First off, they sent Brandon Duckworth down to minor league camp. That's fine with me, honestly. I don't see much difference in him and Santos. Ducky had a better spring, but Santos has had a better career, I really think this one is a push. Add in the "use or lose" factor on Santos, and I really don't see this as that bad of a move. Sending Duckworth down opens up a spot on the staff for Matt Capps, who's had a great spring. Yeah, there are concerns about him only really having one pitch and only having played a few games above the A level, but I dunno, I don't have an awful feeling about this. Relief pitchers can move up faster that just about any position, so his lack of experience doesn't really terrify me. I just hope DL has a real quick hook if he struggles.

Next up they purchased the contract of Jose Hernandez. Not really much of a choice here, DeCaster missed a chunk of spring with the WBC, Mike Edwards is, well, Mike Edwards. This is about as surprising as the sun coming up in the morning.

And finally, we have the head scratcher. Nate McLouth has earned a roster spot this spring. There's not really any doubt about that. You can probably argue that he's even earned a spot in the starting lineup over Chris Duffy, who really hasn't earned much at all this spring and has kind of given the impression that he might still be hurt, not matter how many times DL assures us that he isn't. The thing with McLouth and Duffy is that they will both be better served by, you know, playing baseball, than they will be by being 5th outfielders. Of course, assuming one of the two HAD to be sent down would've been a mistake, because you can never underestimate Dave Littlefield. He instead sent down Jody Gerut, his ready made 28 year old fifth outfielder. That leaves Duffy and McLouth, two guys that need to play, to battle for one spot in the 'Burgh.
I would say I'm stunned, but I'm so immune to stuff like this right now that when I first heard about it, my only thought was, "eh."

The requisite Anna Benson post

Alright, because you asked for it, and because somehow I ended up on the first or second page of most search engines for phrases like "Anna Benson" or "Anna Benson pictures" or inexplicably even "Anna Benson Playboy," which has directed like 400 people to my humble little blog here over the last two days, here it is: Anna has dumped Kris and filed for a divorce based on irreconcilable differences. So comb your hair and floss your teeth because the crazy bitch is single. Also, true love may be dead because if a perfectly bland Joe Baseball player and his certifiably insane stripper wife can't last in this day and age, well, I don't know what to believe in this crazy world.

Roster notes

It's looking more and more like Nate McLouth has played himself into a roster spot this spring, and I'm incredibly happy to see that. In today's Pirate notebook, Dejan suggests that the Pirates may cut the number of relievers down to 11, which I think is a bad idea, or let Chris Duffy start the season in AAA, which I think is a good idea. Their stats this spring aren't even on the same level, in one more plate appearence McLouth has 7 more hits and almost twice as many total bases. He's struck out a whopping 15 times less than the Duffster, and has even swiped four more bases. Duffy is playing like a guy that's still hurt, while McLouth has continued his hot streak that he ended '05 with. I agree with Billy over at Romo, it will be a crime if McLouth isn't given a shot over Duffy to open this year in centerfield. There's always the possibility that trading Craig Wilson will open up that roster spot, but as usual, I hope that isn't the case.

In the same PG column Dejan mentions that Giovanni Carrera was sent to AAA camp (he elected to stay with Indy instead of exercising his right to become a free agent) which is another good move. Carrera's been awful both in the WBC and Spring Training. Him being sent packing can mean a couple things, it opens a spot for Matt Capps (I hope so), the Pirates are serious about only using 11 pitchers to open the season (I hope not), or Craig Wilson is going to be traded and that new pitcher will fill the roster spot (I really hope not) .

2006 MLB Predictions

Alright, here goes nothing. After spending most of a plane ride to Atlanta with BP 2006 it's time for my 2006 MLB predictions. This is really just for fun and to start some debates. My picks are based upon things I've read about the teams, things I already knew about the teams, wishful thinking, and thick bias against teams I don't like. The format is each division's finishing order (* denotes wild card) followed by comments on the division. The NL Central will be a little more in depth because I know more about it and it's more pertinent to the Pirates. My final Pirates pre-season preview will be tomorrow. Here goes nothing...

AL East

1. NY Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Comments: Clearly it's still the Yankees division to lose, though I do think this is the year they could. The Red Sox seem to be aging in leap years and their pitching staff at the moment centers around Schilling, David Wells, and the Kip Wells of Boston, Matt Clement. Toronto got a lot better, but not enough to catch up to the Yankees, though I think they could nip Boston from behind. Tampa has a ton of good young talent, and frankly, I just can't seem them finishing last again.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Chicago White Sox*
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

Comments: Yeah, the White Sox won the World Series last year, but the Indians lost 6 of their last seven and otherwise would've gone into the playoffs as the hottest team in either league. The White Sox outplayed themselves a bit last year, but they knew well enough that you have to mix things up, even after the best of seasons and I think that will put them back into the playoffs. Well, that and their amazing rotation. The Twins will be about the same as last year, I'm not sure what the '92 Pirates can bring to Detroit, but I don't think it's contention, and the Royals are, well, the Royals.

AL West

1. Oakland A's
2. LA-A Angels
   
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

Comments: In the only four team division, Rick Harden and Danny Haren are only going to get better. Huston Street probably can't, but only under the Zach Duke corrollary (the numbers he put up last year were almost unreal by human standards and thus probably won't be replicated). The Angels are lead by a superduper star with a bad back and a fat man with a Cy Young. There's lots of potential for bad things to happen there. Also, I can't pick a team from nowhere to win a division. I picked the Rangers and Mariners to finish 3 and 4 because I don't know much about them besides the fact that they aren't better than the top two teams in the division (and the Rangers hit a ton of homers), don't care to learn much about them, and know that's how they finished last year.

NL East

1. NY Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Comments: OK, here's the deal with the Braves. To win 14 straight divisions, you don't only have to be very good, you have to be very very lucky. When you do things like let Leo Mazzone walk to Baltimore, you lose some of that luck. I think the pitching staff takes a step back this year and I'm not sure many of those 9 million rookies from last year can match their performances. Francouer is not that good, they replaced Furcal with Edgar Renteria, and as nice as the city of Atlanta was to me this week, I just plain don't like the Braves. The Nationals? Come on, they gave the D-Train a roster spot over Ryan Church. If it wasn't for the Marlins, I'd put them in last place on pure principle.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Cincinnati Reds

Comments:The Cards are the best team in the division. They'll come back to the pack a little (think 95 wins instead of 100) with Edmonds getting older, Rolen being uncertain after a serious injury (torn labrum) and Carpenter probably not being able to match last season, but no one's good enough to catch them. The Brewers are coming close and I think they'll end up like the Indians of last year, big push at the end when everyone matures and gels, only to run out of gas and fall just short of a division or a wild card. The Astros, well, I don't know. Something about them I just don't like this year. I don't see Clemens coming back and I get this feeling that even though they somehow made the World Series last year that they just weren't that good. We'll discuss my semi-optimism for the Pirates tomorrow, but mostly I just hate picking us to finish in fifth or six, it's so depressing. I just plain don't like the Cubs chances (Wood and Prior are both starting on the DL, their top offseason acquisition (Pierre) is coming off a Tike Redman like season, and I'm not sure he's much better than that. They also picked up Jacque Jones... blah. I have the Reds last because of their rotation, which I think could take on nightmarish proportions between Dave Williams, Eric Milton, and an unhappy Bronson Arroyo. I mean, their ace is Aaron Harang. Sure, he's not that bad, but one year we started Ron Villone in the season opener because we thought the same thing. We lost 100 games that year (albeit without Griffey, who looks great, Dunn, Kearns, etc.).

NL West

1. LA Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
   
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies

Comments: This is another division in which I profess ignorance of the teams. The Dodgers got hit massively hard by the injury bug last year, and because of that we have a new manager and Paul DePodesta is out of a job. Adding Furcal and Nomar were great moves (Nomar killed the ball after he came back from injury last year). I don't know a ton about the Padres, but hey they won the division last year, right? And they ditched Joe Randa, that had to be a good move. The D'Backs improved last year, but outperformed their pythagorean record by 11 games. What goes around comes around, I say. The Giants have the oldest outfield ever (Alou, Finley, Bonds) and Bonds is just falling apart physically. The rest of the roster is just kind of blah. The Rockies, are, well the Rockies, kind of how we're the Pirates and the Royals are the Royals. Sorry, guys, it sucks, I know (if I was anything but a Pirates fan I'd probably have them picked for last place, too).

Playoffs (just for fun)
AL Wild Card: Indians over Yankees, White Sox over A's
NL Wild Card: Cards over Philles, Mets over Dodgers

ALCS: Indians over White Sox
NLCS: Cards over Mets

World Series: Indians over Cards (this eliminating "curses" thing is pretty en vogue, it's Rocky Colavito's turn to be exorcised, plus, let's face it, God probably owes Cleveland fans after Pittsburgh got to witness the GREATEST PLAYOFF RUN IN NFL HISTORY, EVER, PERIOD).

Ollie's velocity

Dejan's write-up of yesterday's Bucs/BoSox game concurs with the opinion of many that watched Oliver Perez pitch yesterday on the ESPN telecast, mainly that the radar gun, which only seemed to be working some of the time, seemed to be slow most of the afternoon. Also, his final strikeout on Ortiz, which a pitch which had some nasty break on it that I incorrectly characterized as a slider yesterday was instead a split-fingered changeup. That makes sense, as the pitch was much slower than a regular slider, but didn't break like a curveball. I don't even think I know what a split-fingered changeup is, but it sounds pretty tough to hit. In fact, 5 of Ollie's 7 Ks came with his offspeed stuff. Tracy's comments were pretty simple:

I saw a guy interested in being the ace of the staff. He pitched like an ace. He had the demeanor of one. I was extremely pleased to see that.

Maybe the immature, laundry-cart kicking pitcher is finally growing up.

A report from Bradenton

While I was gone I got an e-mail from my uncle, whom we shall call TP (because that's what we call him, duh), who was spending some time in Florida on vacation, and who happened to be vacationing with some other families from work. Anyways, one of the guys he works with happened to be the brother of Brandon Duckworth (I think, correct me if I'm wrong here, Teeps), which meant that he got to go a game at McKechnie sitting in the players' family section. He's not a huge Pirates fan (he lives around Chicago now), but he still provided me with some details:

• My aunt (his wife) got to sit next to several of the players' wives. A direct quote, "For your generation I think that the term is HOT. Yes, very hot." Among those contributing to the hotness around my uncle were Paul Maholm's wife and Craig Wilson's wife (who is on TV once a year for the Ladies Night Out at PNC, and I can back this up, Craig Wilson's wife is very hot), who was pushing a stroller (MILF!). Inside the stroller was a "little dude that looked just like his dad."
  
• It's pretty well documented at this point since the game was a couple days ago, but he also said Maholm had a great outing. He said that the next pitcher (he didn't know who) wasn't so hot. The box score would indicate that it was Ryan Vogelsong.
  
• The offense looked good (7 runs, 14 hits) but 12 of those hits were singles and some more power would have been pretty useful.
• He caught a foul ball, but some friend of the Maholms sitting with Paul Maholm's hot wife wanted the ball and as soon as he did the gentlemanly thing and gave the ball to my aunt, she gave it to the lady behind them, who turned out to be Paul Maholm's best friends' mom (she wanted the ball because Paul was on the mound).

Will the real Oliver Perez please stand up?

The first thing that I've noticed since my return is Jim Tracy's failure to name Oliver Perez as one of his "strikeout pitchers." as both Rowdy and Charlie have posts up on it right now. The first thing I honestly thought of when I saw that is that it must be Tracy's way of motivating Ollie. There's no way any self-respecting manager can actually be characterizing Oliver Perez as a soft-tossing lefty. It was only two years ago the guy lead the league in K/9 and even Tracy made some comments a while back to a similar tune. Knowing the massively competitive player that Perez is, I assumed that Tracy must have been trying to motivate Perez. I think it worked. I saw the early part of Bucs/Red Sox game on ESPN today, and thought Ollie's velocity looked markedly increased, though there was no gun and the naked eye isn't the best way to judge these things. I had to run around campus to do some catching up from the time I missed while out of town, but came back to see Perez whiff David Ortiz on a vintage Ollie slider. I then heard the annoucers declare that his fastball was really zipping today, and Ortiz was in fact the 14th batter in a row that Ollie had put down. Tracy yanked him after that AB (with Ramirez in the on-deck circle and Perez's pitch count creeping up given the amount of work he's done this spring, plus he's got a big start to make on Monday), but his final line was 5 and 2/3, 7 Ks, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, against most of the Red Sox regulars. It's only one start, but that line is tantilizingly familar and encouraging.

I'm baaaaaack

I'm back from Atlanta and I'll be honest... I've haven't had many Pirates related thoughts while I was gone. I wish I could tell you that I took the tour of Turner Field and burned a Francisco Cabrera card while emptying the ashes on the field, but unsurprisingly when you go to a city that features the world's largest aquarium and a nice little bar literally 10 feet from your hotel, people aren't all that excited to go see an empty baseball stadium. I will say that I liked Atlanta way more than I ever thought possible, given my history with the city. Due to some bizarro weather patterns, it was like 30 degrees there on Saturday and never got much warmer than 50, and yet it by the time we got back to Duquesne today it was like 70 in the 'Burgh, but that really wasn't a big deal. Mostly (but not quite) everyone there was incredibly nice and friendly, and very helpful. There was also some chemistry afoot, but I won't bore you with that. While I don't think I can ever really completely forgive Atlanta for the hole in my soul the '91 and '92 LCS put there, but I guess I can begrudgingly admit that it isn't so bad. The plane ride there also gave me a good chance to give a long perusal of BP 2006 (the plane ride back this morning required a 5:15 AM wake-up, which meant that though I would've liked to do some reading a nap was more in line), which means that it's almost time for 2006 predictions. I have some school stuff to do for now, but I'll be back sometime this afternoon/evening to resume the usual blogging.

In Atlanta

Well, I am in Atlanta, and I do have access to a computer. The problem is that we all have certain things that we have to do while we're down here, in addition to treating this trip like a de facto spring break, there isn't a ton of time for me to get many posts about the Pirates up. If I get a chance I'll do a post about yesterday's Zach Duke debacle and other things that have gone on since I left, but for now I have to head over to the convention center and present my poster on my research. You can all rest assured that I am searching for the ghosts of Sid Bream and Francisco Cabrera so that they may be safely exorcised before I leave town on Wednesday morning. I'm almost positive they have to be on a Peachtree Street somewhere, as honestly this city has about 10 streets with that name.

The schedule

Just wanted to let everyone know I'm leaving this afternoon to head to Atlanta to do some chemistry stuff. I'm going with a bunch of other people and I'd say chances are pretty good that I can get my hands on a laptop once a day or so to post some Pirates stuff, but I'm not completely certain. That means it's possible I won't be able to post anything until I get back on Wednesday. If you don't hear anything from me by some time tomorrow afternoon, I'd guess that's going to be the case. Anyways, once I get back, it's gonna be overhaul 'till the opener, I'm gonna try to do previews for the Central and MLB in general, and I'll round up the rest of the season outlook things for the Buccos. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up in case I can't find a computer to use while I'm gone.

Bautista

I missed this in the box score, but apparently during yesterday's rain filled game against the Reds, Jose Bautista played some center field and Jim Tracy was quite impressed. Somewhere, Nate McLouth is banging his head against a wall, wondering just what he has to do to impress someone in the organization.

A lesson in critical reading

John Van Benschoten has hit another setback as he tried to pitch some BP and again failed yesterday, throwing only two pitches off the mound after a full warm-up session yesterday. While this isn't really that surprising at all, what is a bit of a surprise is as the second time in two days (the first being in yesterday's Duckworth column), Paul Meyer tosses in an off-handed comment that JVB could be put on the 60-day DL. I kind of missed it yesterday as it was buried in the column with a list of roster moves that could be made to make room for Ducky, should he make the rotation. Today, I read it and kind of did a double take. As far as I can recall, the team hasn't actually acknowledged that ANYthing is wrong with Van Benschoten other than the fact that he's a bit stiff from the surgery and the time off. Now all of a sudden, he's a candidate for the 60-day DL. Either I missed something, Paul Meyer is making stuff up, or maybe, just maybe, we've been mislead by the Pirates front office once again.

The Barry Bonds lie

When the Barry Bonds story broke a couple of weeks ago, I had just headed home for Spring Break and was talking about it with my dad. His response to the story, being an attorney, was that if it wasn't true, Bonds would sue them for libel. If the even a few of the allegations in the book were true, there's no way Bonds would sue, because to bring the suit to trial would likely bring out the final word on Bonds and his steroid usage. As it turns out, Bonds is suing just about everyone involved with Game of Shadows, though interestingly enough he's not suing for libel, but rather because the grand jury transcripts were "illegally possessed and obtained under federal law" (via Deadspin). Of course that count has nothing to do with whether Bonds used steroids or not, and an investigation of this accusation most likely won't expose Bonds to the level scrutiny that a charge of libel against the writers would. Of course, Bonds' plan to sue without suing seems to be working as news outlets like ESPN have picked up the story and run versions of it on their site, not ever mentioning exactly what Barry is suing for and not even mentioning anything about illegal possession of documents until the 6th and 7th paragraphs of the story. Of course, a very conspicuous box on the side of the column trumps their upcoming reality show on Barry Bonds and all of the exclusive quotes from him about how he is soooo not on steroids that the show will have. I'm almost positive that ESPN is the anti-christ of sports news these days.

UPDATE: ESPN changed the headline of the article to "Bonds to sue over book's use of grand jury documents", though all of the links that lead to it (both on their homepage and the MLB homepage) still have the original title "Bonds to sue over book that alleges steroid use," which is what the title of the window the article opens up in reads.

I'm not trying to expose ESPN here or anything like that, I'm just trying to see through the smoke screen that Bonds is putting up, while noting that ESPN would rather pimp its own shows than report sports accurately.

D for Dave's Vendetta

Former compadre Dave Williams shut down his old team in a completely meaningless game today, though I'm sure he still got some measure of satisfaction from it, especially given the way he's pitched this spring (which is to say, awfully). Paul Maholm (aka "Hopefully not Dave Williams Jr." as I like to think of him) got lit up by the Reds offense to the tune of 6 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings today. Giovanni Carrera, Mike Gonzalez, Terry Adams (who's apparently noticed that there's still not a token old reliever with a beard that's a lock for the roster), and Ryan Vogelsong (who pitched two scoreless giving up 3 hits and a walk in an effort to keep his job) shutout the Reds over the last five innings, allowing only 4 hits and a couple of walks. I was hoping for an in-person game recap from Red-Hot-Mama, but she's apparently taking a day of vacation from her baseball vacation.

Out of the kitchen?

Rowdy links to a Ken Rosenthal article saying that Dave Littlefield has waited too long and asked for too much for Craig Wilson to be traded at any point before the season starts. Normally this would piss me off because it would result in something like Pirates fans having to watch Ty Wigginton at third base or Mark Redman's uncanny ability to turn everyone of his second half starts into Guy Fawkes' Day. This time, however, it's the right thing to do. Wilson's value is low due to his injuries and all the mud he has on him from being dragged through it for several years by our organization. There just isn't much chance that Craig Wilson alone is going to bring a solution to our rotation that's much better than Santos/Duckworth holding a spot until Burnett/Gorzellany are ready (at least not at this point in time). Add that to the fact that he's definitely better than our current right fielder and potentially better than our current first baseman, and I think Craig's a guy that we have to hold on to for a while.

Headline fun

The headline of today's Spring Training article:

ROTATION BATTLE NOT NEW FOR DUCKWORTH

Now, I understand that I can be cynical, probably more so than a lot of people. I don't understand how the inability of a former top prospect to hold a spot in any rotation anywhere can be construed as a good thing. And yet somehow Paul Meyer writes an article today in which we're supposed to feel bad for Duckworth that the 5th spot in the rotation hasn't been handed to him because Jim Colborn taught him to throw a curveball the way Sandy Koufax did. Damn those silly things like "past performances," they really put a damper on things sometimes.

A random speculation

After thinking about the rotation that was announced yesterday by the team, the one that goes Perez, blank, Duke, Snell, Maholm. The more I think about it, the more I think that it means someone from outside the organization is filling that blank. I know you could argue that it's all about shuffling guys to get certain people to make starts in that first home series, but I think that goes even beyond what the Pirates would do to put people in the stands. It just doesn't make sense to fill the #2 slot in your rotation with Brandon Duckworth or Victor Santos. Add that in with Craig Wilson recently publicly voicing his displeasure with his treatment by the team, the fact that five teams seem to be interested in him, especially the Braves, and, well, John Thomson anyone?

Previews

With an absolute lack of any new Pirates news to write about this afternoon, and an exam and a lab report keeping me from spending the necessary time to write up something in depth of my own, I'm going to use today to put up a bunch of links to Pirates previews from other non-Pirates sports/baseball blogs (since the function of Pirate blogs at this point in the season is like a running season preview).

• Charlie of the Bucs Dugout has a 5 questions style preview up at Hardball Times.
• Batter's Box has a long preview that starts out with this great ultimatum:

  In about 2009, the tone of all Pirates previews will have changed. By that time, the tone will either have become noticeably more respectful or will have blown over the fine line between failure and utter despair.

  That's the truth, though it may be sooner than that (via Bucs Dugout).
  
• Baseball Think Factory also has a long Bucco preview (via Romo Phone Home).
• At the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog they've run season simulations with Diamond Mind, ZiPS, and BP's PECTOA (2000 seasons with Diamond Mind and ZiPS and 1000 with PECTOA). ZiPS was kindest to the Bucs, giving them an 11% chance of making the postseason and an 81-81 record), with PECTOA putting them at 8% and Diamond Mind at 4%. The final average of the projections puts the Bucs ahead of the Astros and Reds at 78-84 with an 8% chance of making the playoffs. 8% sure isn't a lot, but it's more than the Royals, who averaged a 0% chance of making the playoffs on all three systems.
• And last but not least (last as it was up a week ago and I neglected to post about it) is Deadspin's "Four Tiny Tidbits On the Pirates" giving four fun facts about the Pirates that most of you probably already know, but the baseball loving public probably didn't.
  

Roster moves

The Pirates sent a bunch of people down to the minor league camp today, the players of note being Brad Eldred, Yurie DeCaster, Sean Burnett, Tom Gorzellany, and Rajai Davis. Eldred and Davis didn't have much of a chance to make the team out of camp, so there's no surprise there, DeCaster probably cost himself a shot at the utility role in the bigs by playing in the WBC so his being sent down reaffirms the fact that Jose Hernandez will take over the backup utility role, and Burnett and Gorzellany being sent down just means that the team thinks they both need a little seasoning in AAA (or rust removal in Burnett's case), which I think makes sense. DL says that all of those guys named above will contribute to the team this year, and I'd have to think there's a lot of truth to that statement.

Also today, Tracy unveiled the top of the rotation. He'll lead off with Ollie in LA (so much for him being the 5th starter, sheesh), followed by Duke, Snell, and Maholm. He says its to keep the pressure off of Duke, but it also puts Duke in line to start the Home Opener the next Monday at PNC, which is arguably a more pressure filled start. Tracy naming Snell at #3 means that there really is only one spot left, and it's probably a battle between Santos and Duckworth for the 5th starter and the loser of that battle challenging Vogelsong for the last spot in the pen. It's also still possible that the fifth slot in the rotation will be filled by an as yet unnamed person currently wearing colors other than black and gold, as the ESPN rumor mill reports that five clubs have contacted DL about CWilson and Craig himself is finally starting to show some cracks after being yanked around by his chain for the better part of 5+ year career here.

Baseball roundup

The first World Baseball Classic ended last night with Japan defeating Cuba 10-6 to take the first gold medals in the event (I hate to say I told you so, but...). I have to say, this thing really exceeded my expectations for it. Besides Oliver Perez being setback another month and the semi-bizarre tiebreakers and format that allowed Korea to beat Japan 2 out of 3 times, only to be consoled with third place, I think it was a success. Besides the US team, every single team in the tournament played like it was their World Series. All the worries about the games being Spring Training games and the players not caring were seriously proved false. And to add on to it, it gave us an extra month of meaningful baseball. Somehow I don't think there will be as much trouble filling up the US team in 2009.

On one hand, we do have a GM who burned a ton of money on old guys who don't the Pirates any better. On the other hand, we could be run by a complete moron who loves "toolsy outfielders" so much that he goes out and trades for a second baseman with the intention of turning him into a toolsy outfielder against his will, knowing full well that the player doesn't want to be moved. Then, said player could be penciled in to start a spring training game in left field, and just not take the field. I don't know who's more of a moron in this deal, Bowden for trading for Soriano after Soriano explicitly stated he wouldn't change positions, or Soriano for acting like a six year old. Even Jason Kendall trotted out to the outfield on a few occasions, no matter how against his will it was.

Santos vs. Duckworth

Given that Ian Snell has earned himself a slot in the rotation (and he has), that Sean Burnett and Tom Gorzellany have been good but need some time in AAA before they're ready for the show (they do), that no one really cares whether Jose Hernandez or Yurie DeCaster is the utility man (do you?) and that my boy Ryan Vogelsong has pitched himself into oblivion (he certainly has) there's only one interesting position battle left in Spring Training, the rumble for the right to be the last starter in the mighty Pittsburgh Pirates rotation, Brandon Duckworth vs. Victor Santos.

This really hasn't been much of a concern all spring, it seemed that once Vogelsong crumbled Santos would get a spot in the rotation pretty easily. Duckworth, however, has pitched pretty well recently and the propaganda machine has written some columns to make sure you notice. I've also noticed that public opinion is swinging towards Duckworth, and I'm not so sure that it should be. It's a given that in 13 1/3 innings this spring Duckworth has looked better than Santos has in his 9 2/3. It's also true that it's just that, spring training.

Victor Santos isn't Cy Young, he isn't Zach Duke, he's not even a healthy Kip Wells. What he is is a pitcher that's been in the NL Central for two years, and in 2005 (using the equivalence stats from Baseball Prospectus 2006, which I didn't get around to ordering until last week but is certainly worth the money) he had a year that was about equivalent to Kip Wells, Mark Redman, and Josh Fogg and better than Oliver Perez. He'll provide about the same for the Pirates this year, ERA around 4.50, and WHIP around 1.4, until Gorzelanny and/or Burnett are ready, which could be sooner than anyone thinks. To that end, those numbers aren't especially bad. The problem comes when four out of 5 guys in your rotation are putting up numbers that bad or worse (as we saw in most of 2005). Brandon Duckworth, on the other hand, might be a bigger bust in his career than Ryan Vogelsong. Last year he flamed out in the Astros rotation and again in the pen, and was quickly sent back down to AAA. When I tried to find him in BPro, I realized he wasn't even there. According to WTM's site, he had a whopping .851 OPS against in TRIPLE A last year. This year, despite his impressive ERA this spring, he's walked 6 batters in only 13 innings. What's his biggest problem been in the majors? Control. If the Pirates want, I'm fine with giving him a spot in the pen over Vogelsong and letting him mop other people's messes up. Vogelsong has certainly worn out the patience of just about everyone and has let another chance slip through his fingers. I've always been one of his bigger defenders, and I'm fairly sure he'd be a better middle man (in the Brian Meadows type role) than Duckworth would be, but at this point leaving Vogie off the roster for Duckworth is at least justifiable. Given his history though, putting Duckworth in the rotation would likely be nothing short of another disaster.

More reasons the Matt Clement trade won't happen

The Red Sox traded Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena today, which involves the Pirates in several ways. First and foremost, it means that the Craig Wilson for Clement deal is dead. There's no way the Sox will trade both these guys. It also means that the Red Sox turned Bronson Arroyo, whom they got from off of waivers for absolutely zilch, into Wily Mo Pena, a rather promising young guy who kills the ball and is perfectly suited for Fenway. And of course the final straw is that we had been hoping the Pirates would deal for Pena, and while comparing what Krivsky traded for him in March to what O'Brien would've been asking for him in November (as well as the fact that they traded him to a team they wouldn't be playing 20 times a year) when we were dealing with the Reds is like comparing apples and oranges, but I think it's pretty safe to say we could've found some way to get this deal done without mortgaging the future.

The most depressing column I've ever read

Here it is. Kevin McClatchy on "We Will" (emphasis mine):

We will work hard in our marketing department. We will give our customers the best service. We will give our customers the best experience at a ballgame. 'We Will' can go to a lot of different areas. It's more of a positive outlook on how you go about your business.

McClatchy is also really pleased about that 20% rise in attendance last year, you know, the one that put them all the way up to... oh yeah, last place in the National League.

Some links

Jim Tracy says Ian Snell is pitching his way into the rotation.

Jeff Manto says when Brad Eldred's bat managed to make contact with the ball, the ball goes far.

Meanwhile, Rob Rossi is reporting that the Pirates are shopping Craig Wilson and are hoping for Matt Clement in return. While I do believe that DL is shopping Craiggers, Clement is an incredibly unlikely return for him. For starters, Clement's been lights out this spring. Secondly, David Wells just called Francona an idiot, meaning it's a bit unlikely he'll do much pitching for the Sox this year, and that Clement's price will accordingly rise. If we're getting anything in return for Craig Wilson before the season, it's probably someone in the Josh Fogg/Mark Redman mold. The only way we get more is by him playing well this year and proving that he's past the two hand injuries he suffered last year.

Snell solid again

Ian Snell put together yet another solid start today, going four scoreless innings against the Tribe with 4 Ks, 2 hits, and no walks. I have to say, I was a little worried about him coming into the spring after the DL smear campaign late in the fall after he backed out of the AFL, but Snell has stepped up big time this spring by working on that changeup and it looks like he's cemented probably the #2 slot in the rotation, assuming Tracy will want to alternate left/right as much as possible. If I had to guess right now, I'd say that opening the year the rotation will be:

1. Duke
2. Snell
3. Maholm
4. Santos
5. Perez

Zach Duke should keep the following names in mind: Tim Wakefield, Zane Smith, John Lieber, Paul Wagner, John Lieber, Francisco Cordova, Francisco Cordova, Jason Schmidt, Todd Ritchie, Ron Villone, Kris Benson, Kip Wells, Oliver Perez

Yep, you guessed it, the last 13 Opening Day starters for the Buccos (courtesy of some Retrosheet browsing, of course). I suppose you could say that Duke doesn't have much to live up to.

Marte's OK

Looks like Damaso Marte is going to be OK, according to DL he simply tried to start the season too quickly and irritated his shoulder. I hope that's the case, losing him would really throw a wrench into the bullpen plans for the season. We should know for sure within a couple days when he resumes throwing.

Also, Zach Duke pitched well yesterday, albeit on a curious three day rest. He thinks they're trying to set up the rotation (for him to pitch the opener), I think it may have just been a chance to get him to work out the finesse problems he's been having. He seems to be getting stronger as the spring goes along, which is all you can really ask for.

Ollie vs. the USA

The line looks good for Oliver Perez tonight, as he pitched 3 shutout innings against the star-studded US lineup. He only gave up one hit and one walk over the span, and threw 21 of his 36 pitches for strikes. Still, I watched most of it and wasn't really assuaged at all by his performance. His performance was essentially something you'd expect out of Paul Maholm, not Oliver Perez. The US hit several balls hard right at people and sent a couple balls to the warning track. He didn't manage to strike out one batter in his three innings of work and his velocity was still waaay waaaay down. The TV gun may not be accurate (though if anything I'd imagine it would be hopped up for the event, especially with the Rocket on the mound for the US) but Ollie rarely topped 88 with his fastball, and sometimes I could've sworn I saw a couple fastballs cross the plate at 85 mph. We're not talking about him dropping 3 or 4 mph to rein his control in, we're talking about some of his fastballs crossing the plate 10 miles an hour slower than they did in 2004. That's a problem. I think it's also telling that after 3 relatively easy innings with a very low pitch count (especially for him), Mexico's manager still pulled Perez. Maybe he was just happy to get 3 innings out of him after his last outing, but given the preponderance of evidence that suggest something else, I'm not so sure.

If you've got the time

I know it's a lot to ask people to flip their TV away from basketball today (and I don't blame anyone for it, I love the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney), Oliver Perez will take the mound for Mexico against the US tonight at 7:30 on ESPN. The US needs a win to advance. Mexico can't advance (minus winning 3-0 or 4-0 against the US in a 13 inning game or longer... these tiebreakers are seriously on crack for this thing), but eliminating the USA from the tournament is probably almost as good as advancing to the semis. Let's see if national pride can rouse something in Ollie that the NL Central failed to do last year, because if it can't I'm kind of afraid we might not ever see it again.

Paul Meyer, ugh

Today Paul Meyer fawns over Mike Edwards, who judging from the tone and phrases like "toiled incessently" and "battling the odds" that are repeated over and over again, may or may not have survived some kind of famine or genetic disease that affects professional athletes from Mechanicsburg. Despite this, it does not change the fact that he isn't very good at baseball and should not make the team.

Also, Meyer reports that the Pirates are considering starting the season with Oliver Perez as the 5th starter, seeing as how he's thrown a total of 35 pitches in game situations since March 1st. He is scheduled to start for Team Mexico today, which is good news for Team USA who needs a win to advance to the semis. Currently, everything involving Oliver Perez terrifies me. I want to see him pitch well today, but if he does there's probably some kind of slim chance that Mexico will advance in this tournament, which is not good for the Pirates (besides that, the WBC's been fantastic, anything that inspires this kind of passion is good for baseball and fun to watch).

Bullpen outlook

Time for the bullpen outlook for 2006. Though we know a lot more about the guys in the pen than we do about the starters, I'm not going all in depth with numerical predictions because, well, it's the bullpen.

Mike Gonzalez- One of the few Pirates that's exceeded expectations in recent years. In two years in the bigs he has 113 strikeouts in 93 1/3 innings, compared with only 104 hits+walks. Plus, the guy is incredibly intense. He pitches equally well against righties and lefties (lefties' OPS against him is .517, righties' are at .636). I don't understand where the concern over him closing comes from, I think he's gonna be fine.

Salomon Torres- Maybe the most reliable guy in the pen the last two years. He just turned 34, but his arm took a five year break in the middle of his career so that may not matter as much. He put up WHIPs of 1.19 and 1.18 the last two years, I don't see much to worry about here.

Roberto Hernandez- Here's a case where age is a question mark. Hernandez is very old and very overpaid. Besides last year, he's looked very Jose Mesa-ish since 2001. He's supposed to be in the pen for set-up duty and to teach Gonzo how to close, but with only one lefty set-up man healthy at the moment, he may close. The big question is whether last year's good numbers were a fluke, or whether it was due to Rich Peterson's fixing a flaw in his delivery. If it is the latter, we might be able to expect a decent year out of the old man.

John Grabow- I'm not a big Grabow fan (I've been known to refer to him as "Grablow" from time to time), but he was respectable last year, especially in the first half (he collapsed in the second, especially late in the year). He brought his WHIP was down from his awful rookie season. He was also tied for best in the league last year in allowing inherited runners to score (allowing only 4 of 37, I'm still not sure if that made up for the debacle that was Rick White). Still, I think he can be a decent lefty out of the pen, though him being the primary left-handed set-up man makes me nervous.

Ryan Vogelsong- Though I like Vogelsong, I think what we've seen so far is what we're going to get. Hopefully he can continue on from his strong second half of last year and be a good middle innings eater.

Giovanni Carrara- Don't know much about him, but he's one of Tracy's favorites and I'd expect him to make the team. He's put up good numbers in every year he's been with Tracy and Colborn, so I think we can expect him to be a decent reliever this year.

Damaso Marte- He's downright nasty against lefties when he's healthy, which is all we need him to be. Unfortunately he isn't healthy at the moment and I have no idea how long he's out for.

We also may see some Jonah Bayliss, Brandon Duckworth, and Scott Strickland if Marte is hurt. I don't want to think of a situation in which we see anyone else, because below them it's not especially pretty. Still, this bullpen seems like a good (and deep) group at the outset of the season, and I think we can count on them to be pretty solid if we do ever actually get a lead to them.

Marte out

With ESPN's entire focus going on March Madness and the fact that the PG and Pirates.com both apparently forgot that Damaso Marte is in fact a Pittsburgh Pirates, it's pretty easy to miss the fact that Marte's been dropped off the Dominican's WBC roster for the final round due to a shoulder problem (I missed it completely, thanks to commenter Murphy for the tip). It's not really shocking given his performance thus far in the tournament (awful except for his first appearence), and he's coming back to the 'Burgh to get it looked at, but it doesn't really sound good.

The Bob Smizik Ban

This accidentally published as "Failure" when I was about 2/3rds done with it. It's essentially the same post with some changes throughout and an actual ending.

I've tried, I really have. About a 8 months ago I swore off writing about the stupid things that come out of Bob Smizik's mouth. My reasoning was that everything he writes is to piss people like me off, and by me bitching about his columns I was only doing exactly what he wanted. Slowly since the end of the season, I've lost sight of that and almost written about Smizik again, but the breadth of the stupidity today is just too much to ignore. Today, he decides to tackle the downside of plate patience. Thus, I have decided to remind myself why I don't write posts about what Smizik writes, then continue my own personal ban on posting about his columns.

He begins by acting on an assumption of what plate patience is that is completely wrong. Exercising patience at the plate doesn't always mean taking pitches early in the count, it means being disciplined enough to not swing at something you can't hit. Sure, there are situations where a batter should take until he gets a strike. Any time a pitcher has thrown a lot of pitches and is struggling with control, especially late in a close game, is a "take until strike" situation. Today on Pirates.com there's another article up about plate patience. Tracy's exact quote is:

"I'm not advocating that you go up there and you take the first pitch. I'm advocating that you go up there each and every time and you get yourself a good pitch to swing at."

His then provides his first example, plate patience is bad because Roberto Clemente did not take many pitches. This is obvious because Roberto Clemente was the best Pirate of the last 50 years (at least, he is when he proves Smizik's point, otherwise he's worse than Paul Waner, partly because WANER DREW 470 MORE WALKS, Smizik actually wrote that) and if he didn't need to take pitches, why should these Pirates? Of course, Roberto Clemente was a fantastic pure hitter that between 1960 and his death after the 1972 season never had an on-base percentage of worse than .356 or an OPS of under .805 (mostly in the 60s, one of the best pitching eras ever). No one tries to change Vlad Guerrero's approach at the plate and if not for intentional walks, he'd walk at a very similar rate to Clemente. Just because it works for Roberto Clemente and Vlad Guerrero doesn't mean it will work for Jack Wilson. All the Pirates are saying is "If you can hit it hard take a cut. If you can't and there's not two strikes, then don't. If it's not a strike, don't swing." Just because Clemente could hit a wider variety of pitches harder than the current Pirates doesn't mean he didn't follow the same philosophy.

Smizik then bafflingly decides that the Pirates batting averages with two strikes is good evidence that plate patience is bad. This is because everyone knows that the only way to get two strikes on you is to take two consectutive pitches, and every time you watch two pitches they will both automatically be called strikes. Those stats don't apply to this argument in any way unless you're assuming that plate patience is defined as "Taking strikes until there are two on you," which is completely moronic. Kind of like the premise of the column.

This is why I avoid Smizik as much as possible. He looks at what people are saying that might be positive about something, and then does his best to piss all over it. Almost everything he says about the Pirates is said simply to be contrary to popular opinion. People were happy to see Joe Randa back, he said that Randa's too old now and he isn't good, we just shouldn't have let him go in the first place. People were starting to rave about Tracy's camp and he shot them right down. Now, people are happy to see that perhaps the Pirates won't look like drunken lumberjacks at the plate and he writes this. Sometimes he's right, like with the Randa column. Sometimes, like with the McClendon/Tracy column, he's not completely off base. Sometimes his columns are further off base than Matt Lawton on a Sunday afternoon, like today. I don't think he really cares, honestly, I think it's all done because it's easier to get people to read what you write when you disagree with what they think. He takes his contrarian position, finds some numbers that he can take out of context to back him up (ironically, the exact reason why columnists like Smizik hate GMs like Billy Beane). This is why the permanent WHYGAVS Bob Smizik Ban is being officially renewed, as of today.

The Stats Geek and lineup tools

The Stats Geek's column today deals with using a lineup tool to predict the best possible offense for the Pirates in 2006. I'd assume the tool he used can be found here. Since a tool like that can only take numbers like OBP and SLG into consideration, Sean Casey is viewed as the best leadoff hitter. Playing around with the suggestion a bit, the Stats Geek decides on Duffy, Casey, Bay, Burnitz, Randa, Castillo, Doumit, JWilson as the Pirates best lineup, which I can't really argue with (I might suggest dropping Randa to two and bumping Casey, Bay, and Burnitz all back a slot to add some speed at the top, but the real truth is that Randa probably isn't much faster than Casey at this stage of his life).

Anyways, this gives me an opportunity to do something I had meant to do a couple weeks ago, but never got around to. Specifically, that is use Cyril Morong and Ken Arneson's Lineup Analysis tool that was posted on Baseball Musings a few weeks back to look at the 2006 Pirates lineup. This tool gives the best lineup for a group of players, just like the one O'Neill used, but it also gives run expectancy. The first lineup I'll use is the Stats Geek's ideal lineup, using 2006 ZiPS projections for SLG and OBP. As a disclaimer, yes, I know just how theoretical all this is. I'm just using it as a statistical way to measure just how certain players affect the lineup. Since the tool requires nine batters, I'll use Zach Duke's batting stats from last year. The tool projects that lineup out to 4.327 runs per game or 721 runs over the course of the year, or 41 runs more than last year. Assuming we give up the same amount of runs as last year (a giant assumption, I know, but it's the best I have at the moment for a reference point), 769, that projects out to a 76-86 record, using Baseball Reference's Pythagorean W/L formula (we actually projected out to 72 wins last year but underperformed a bit, if you can believe that).

Since we can be fairly sure that Tracy will stick to a lineup very similar to the one the Stats Geek used, let's have fun with one simple change. By adding Craig Wilson's projections into the four spot for Burnitz, the tool ups our run expectation for 2006 to 752, which is dangerously close to equally the number of runs we gave up last year (projects out to 79 wins). Moving Randa up to the 2 slot and bumping Casey to 3, Bay to 4, and CWilson to 5 gives us 758 runs, while replacing Randa with Freddy Sanchez costs us four runs in that lineup, putting us at 754.

Granted, as I said above, nothing that I did here is set in stone. The lineup tool is certainly not perfect, nor are the ZiPS projections. I hate to beat a dead horse, but this helps confirm what we already suspected, Craig Wilson's bat is worth 31 runs more than Jeromy Burnitz's, while Freddy Sanchez's bat only costs us four compared to Joe Randa. It could be argued that Freddy Sanchez will save four runs in the field next year compared to Joe Randa, but I highly doubt Jeromy Burnitz will be worth 31 runs in right field more than Craig Wilson.

Still, some of the numbers are promising. All of the lineups I used predicted more runs in 2006 than we scored (or were projected to score) in 2005. It's also possible that guys like Castillo and even Jack Wilson out play their predictions (it's also possible that people underperform, but I'm aiming for positive here). And even as dire as our pitching situation looks at the moment, we had four people last year that made at least 20 starts and had ERAs of between 4.90 and 5.85 (Redman 4.90, Fogg 5.05, Wells 5.09, Perez 5.85). And Jose Mesa and Daryle Ward and Tike Redman are completely gone. I suppose all I'm saying is that it's possible that things aren't as bleak as some of us (myself included especially) make them out to me.

EDIT (9:26 PM): I should point out that this all assumes that we use that exact same starting lineup for all 162 games, which doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of happening. The tool gives its prediction in runs per game which makes the difference seem trivial, when multiplied out over a long period of time it's much more noticeable. For a good example, when the tool is used to analyze a typical starting line up from last year, Lawton, Sanchez, Bay, Ward, Mackowiak, Castillo, Cota, JWilson, Duke, it gives us 698 runs. We actually scored 680, but given all of the roster and lineup shuffling we did last year, 698 is fairly close. For a more accurate prediction of how many runs we'll score, it may be a fair exercise to subtract 20. I didn't, simply because no one can say for sure who will get hurt, who will outperform expectations, etc. and I was using the run totals more for comparison's sake than anything (with pythagorean win totals thrown in for fun, of course).

The three R's (Roster, Rumor, Rotation)

The Bucs trimmed the roster by seven yesterday, sending Mike Johnston, Matt Peterson, Jonah Bayliss, Josh Sharpless, Javier Guzman, Craig Stansberry, and Andrew McCutchen back to minor league camp. The only mild surprise out of that group is Johnston, but as there's no indication that Marte or Grabow is going to be traded any time soon, there's not really room for four lefties in a Major League bullpen.

I've seen it said in a couple places (in the comments here at Charlie's site and in a post at Romo Phone Home) that during yesterday's radio broadcast Greg Brown spent some time wondering if Oliver Perez's poor limited performance with team Mexico wasn't an indication of something being physically wrong with him. If it's true and Perez can't start the season in Pittsburgh (which would not be at all surprising), it would almost certainly mean that Craig Wilson or maybe Damaso Marte (or both) will be traded before the season starts to bring in some more starting pitching. It would also open up the fourth outfield spot, most likely for Nate McLouth, though possibly for Ray Sadler, who's killed the ball this spring (but isn't on the 40-man roster at the moment).

Also yesterday, Ian Snell and Sean Burnett pitched well against a Yankee reject squad (I see Posada in that lineup there and not much else), though Scott Strickland got lit up later in the game by what I can only assume were the Yankees 9th stringers. Meanwhile, Paul Maholm managed to not suck something awful against the Tigers giving up two runs in four innings, though the 7 hits and 2 walks over that span aren't exactly impressive. Gorzelanny continued to be impressive in that game (maybe as a statement to Maholm that if he doesn't get his stuff together those two will be swapping spots sooner than anyone thinks) and Roberto Hernandez actually pitched, much to the disappointment to all of us who hoped that he'd get hurt and we could just void that contract. Today the Bucs have their only off day of the spring.

Ronny Paulino sighting

While typing up that monster of a post on pitching below there, I had (and still have) the DR/Cuba WBC game on the TV behind me. I heard an unexpected name pop-up not once but twice, that of Indianapolis Indians catcher Ronny Paulino. So far against Cuba today he's 1-for-1 with a double and two walks. Nothing quite like the baseball that David Ortiz very well may have disintegrated into thin air in the fifth inning, but still, it's always nice to hear the Pirates are doing well (especially after Damaso Marte sh*t the bed last night to the tune of 3 hits, 3 runs (2 earned) and a walk to earn the loss last night for the Domincan against Puerto Rico... at least Saloman looked good in 1 2/3 scoreless)

UPDATE: Just as I was about to publish this post, Paulino hammered a ball to the left center gap and stood at the plate to watch it sail over the fence. Unfortunately for him, it didn't quite make it over the fence and he got thrown out at second by a mile and a half. At least he hit it far. It's things like that that just make me love being a Pirate fan.

Pitching Predictions, sort of

After I did the predictions for the starting position players a while back I decided to take some time off before discussing the pitchers. This was for a couple reasons, first off, someone always seems to get hurt early in Spring Training (thanks, Kip, for filling that quota), second off, it's hard to predict the stats for pitchers, wins, losses, and ERA are all much more arbitrary than AVG/OPB/SLG and stats like K/BB, K/9, and WHIP don't seem to lend themselves as easily to conversation, and finally, it's hard to make predictions for a rotation with such little experience. Anyways, instead of concrete predictions, I'll go with vague assertions about how I think these guys will perform. I'll do starters today, bullpen tomorrow, then finish off the hitters with the bench guys on Wednesday.

Oliver Perez- There might not be any pitcher in the league that terrfies both hitters and fans the way Ollie does. I'm sure you all know the drill, he dazzled everyone in 2004 with his mid-90s heater, his nasty, nasty slider, and a variety of arm angles. His K/BB ratio was 2.95:1, his WHIP was 1.15 and he struck out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. Last year he came to camp without having thrown at all during the winter and never found his the same form, his velocity was down to the low 90s, he couldn't spot his slider the way he could in 2004, his K/BB dropped to 1.39:1, his WHIP accordingly jumped to 1.67 and his Ks per 9 dropped 8.48. We let him pitch this winter and Littlefield proclaimed him to be back to form, but he's only made a couple of appearences this spring. One was against the Manatee County Community College and one was against Canada in the WBC. Against Canada his velocity was down even further (he rarely topped 90) and he couldn't spot a pitch to save his life. He either walked or K'd every batter he faced in his one inning of work (which saw 19 balls and only 16 strikes thrown). This is a pretty dark outlook, but I'd honestly be surprised to see him match his output from last year. There's something wrong with Oliver Perez and I don't think anyone has figured out what it is.

Zach Duke- Again, you know the drill. He was a rookie phenom last year, holding Major League hitters to a lower batting average and slugging percentage than he did their AAA counterparts with almost identical OBPs. He's had some trouble spotting his two-seam fastball this spring, but he threw three solid innings yesterday before losing it and is showing signs of coming around. It's silly to think he'll put up numbers even close to what he did in his fourteen big league starts last year, but that's only because if he did that he'd be handed the Cy Young Award for the next fifteen or so years. Still, Duke is the real deal and assuming that he can bring his control back around I think there's a good chance he'll come in right around his ZiPS projections, 14-10, 3.73 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. I also think that he may exceed the low strikeout expectations that the ZiPS have for him, as he's unfairly pegged as a soft-tosser.

Paul Maholm- Here's where things start to get really scary. Maholm is a guy with a good ceiling that should probably be starting in AAA this year. He had a good run with the Bucs late last summer, but showed some control problems (3.7 BB/9 with the Pirates) and at points last year, seemed to lucky as opposed to good. Besides last year, he's also thrown very few innings total in his career and only has made 12 starts at or above AAA. He's struggled mightily with his control this spring, and I think he's a huge question mark for this year.

Ian Snell- Dominated at times last year in Indy, even throwing a no-hitter. He's also looked pretty good this spring and seems to have learned that third pitch everyone thought he needed. I actually think we may see him outperform Maholm at the outset of 2006 and given Kip Wells absence and the fact that the only other two righties with a shot at the rotation are Vogelsong and Santos, he's going to get a good chance to keep the rotation spot that I'm fairly sure he has locked up at this point. I don't think he's going to disappoint, either. I don't expect every start to be like the dazzling 8 shutout innings he threw at the Astros and the Rocket last September, but I think he'll be OK this year.

Victor Santos- I'd expect him to keep doing what he did in Milwaukee, ERA in the high 4s, approaching 5, WHIP around 1.5. Unfortunately he's the best option for now as the fifth starter, so I'd expect him to keep doing his thing until Sean Burnett is ready.

Sean Burnett- Or as I like to call him "Zach Duke before being Zach Duke was cool." I won't lie, I really like Burnett. He'll start the year out at AAA, as people that miss 16 months of baseball with only 10 career big league starts should. Still, I'd expect him to be ready for a big league spot within 6 weeks of the dawn of the season, and I'd expect that between Maholm and Santos we'll be ready for him in Pittsburgh. He seems like he's completely recovered from his surgeries and while he might not pick up exactly where he left off (after his 4-2, 2.18 ERA start in 2004, not the next five starts he pitched with his injury), I don't think he'll be that far off.

Kip Wells- They're saying Kip will be ready for a return by the All-Star break. I've never ever seen a Pirate come back from a serious injury in the timetable the team predicted, but to this point everything has gone as well with his injury as we could hope. With his two main nemesis (nemesii? nemesises? I don't know), Spin and Lloyd, gone, as well as the injury that very well may have contributed to his control and velocity problems last year completely taken care of, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Kip of 2003 return, especially with money on the line in his walk year. Of course, at this point I'm just happy he's OK. Any pitching he does at all this year will just be gravy.

The McClatchy Company

It seems that the McClatchy Company has agreed to buy Knight Ridder, the second largest newspaper publisher in the country, for $4.5 billion (free registration required at the link). Since the acquisition is being described as "A dolphin swallowing a small whale," it is being speculated that the McClatchy Company will be selling some oftheir newspapers and other assets and some of Knight Ridder's papers to make the deal profitable for themselves. I don't know how directly what Kevin McClatchy does with the Pirates correlates to the McClatchy Company, but I'd assume there is some connection as he's on the Board of Directors in his family's company. Perhaps one of the assets to be sold is the baseball team with the low salary, high profits, beautiful stadium, good All-Star Game publicity, and a billionaire waiting to buy them?

Thanks to reader Ben Miller for the tip.

New Pirate blog

Since Spring Break is over, I was sitting at the computer tonight and paging through the referral logs in lieu of admitting defeat and getting out my Biochem book. I pleasantly discovered Romo Phone Home, a new Pirates blog chronicling the trials of a father/son duo of Pirate fans. It's only two posts old, but judging by the graphic in the header and the first couple posts it's definitely worth checking out.

More trouble for Duke

Zach Duke got roughed up again today, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings against the D-Rays. The MLB.com recap describes his outing thusly:

Duke breezed through the first three innings, allowing just two infield singles, before being done in by control problems in the fourth. He hit consecutive batters after one out in the frame, then surrendered a pair of doubles and a (Josh) Paul home run that put the Pirates behind, 6-0.

It sounds like he's still having trouble with the finesse pitches like the two seamer. It isn't a huge problem but it gets bigger the closer we get to the opener, especially as guys like Maholm and Perez continue to struggle in the spring as well.

Aside from the rotation, Dejan has an article about the hopeful anchor of the Pirates bullpen this year, Mike Gonzelez. His stuff is clearly good enough to get the job done, as we've seen the last couple years. The biggest problem he'll encounter is his own love of striking batters out. He had some trouble with the strike zone early in the year last year (before his injury) and it seemed to stem from him trying to strike out everyone that came up to the plate. If he can avoid that mentality, I really doubt we'll have much to worry about from the closer's position. The problem will be getting leads into the 9th inning.

Bucs and Sox

I saw some, but not all, of today's televised spring training game with the Red Sox. Vogelsong was his typical self, struggling with the strike zone and giving up some pretty solid hits in the first two innings, but managed to bounce back for a decent third. Jim Tracy was not pleased. Still, it was against a Red Sox lineup not featuring the likes of David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek, or even Coco Crisp. The way the Pirates hitters bounced back against Schilling to score the four runs back in the fourth was nice to see, and Casey hit some balls very hard. Freddy Sanchez also ripped a key double. Jack Wilson did not look hulking or even excessively large in his first TV appearence of the spring. That's about all I got out of today's game, tomorrow Zach Duke looks to reign in that two seamer before the opener against the Devil? Rays at McKechnie

Housekeeping

I made some cosmetic changes around the blog today. I updated the site feeds (which I've been slowly workin on for some time now) and moved them a little towards the bottom of the sidebar. I also changed the archives to monthly instead of weekly, simply because the list on the sidebar was getting to be too long for my likings (this doesn't change the links to any individual posts, so don't worry about that). I also changed the title of the blog and the post headings to be gold instead of green because, let's face it, this is a Pirates blog and it's time to start showing some team colors. If you have any feedback leave it in the comments because I'm not done and will probably be tweaking the template here and there until the season starts.

Buccos on TV

The first spring game of the year is on TV today with the Pirates Opening Day lineup minus Jason Bay playing about half (the lesser half it appears) of the Red Sox regulars. Ryan Vogelsong may have had a chance to capitalize on Victor Santos' bad outing yesterday, but that chance has already passed him by as he's given up four runs in the first two innings and is generally just getting beaten all over the park. The race for the fifth rotation spot looks like it's going to come down to who does less to hurt their status this spring, as opposed to someone actually pitching well enough to earn it.

Down to one?

Ian Snell had another good outing yesterday, throwing 4 innings and only giving up two runs on a wind aided homer (very wind aided, it was blowing out at 20-27 mph). Though his control wasn't perfect, it sounds like just about everything else was and this quote from Tracy seems to indicate Snell may have the fourth starting slot just about locked up:

"When Ian Snell gets consistent command, his stuff is more than good enough for the major-league level. I'll take pitching like that anytime."

Sounds to me like he's going to have to screw up royally to lose a spot in the rotation right now.

As for the fifth spot, I'd still put Santos ahead of everyone else to take it. He took the mound today against Minnesota and it doesn't look like he had a very strong outing (the Twins scored 4 runs in the first three innings), though it's hard to say as no one provides live game updates for spring training games. Rowdy also has some thoughts on Santos.

Oliver Perez

I TiVo'd ESPNs "coverage" of the Mexico-Canada WBC game from yesterday in hopes of catching Ollie on the mound. ESPN condensed the three hour game into like an hour and a half, so thusly I only saw 3 of the six batters that Perez faced. It was ugly. Aside from what the boxscore can tell you, 35 pitches with only 16 strikes, 3 walks and 3 strikeouts, he looked exactly like the Perez we saw last year. His fastball hovered between 88 and 89, topping out at 90 only once in the batters that I saw him face. He was close to the strikezone, but not exactly in it and he relied on a couple calls from the umpires to get out of the inning relatively unscathed (he came in with a runner on first and ended up walking him around, providing Canada with their only run). He looked a lot like a guy that would benefit from being in camp pitching on a regular basis, instead of staying with Team Mexico pitching maybe once a week. Unfortunately, Mexico won last night in a blowout, meaning they will advance in the WBC no matter what the outcome of today's US/South Africa game is.

Pirates and the WBC

Jason Bay's Canadians face off against Oliver Perez's Mexicans at 9 tonight (it's not actually viewable until 3 AM on tape delay on ESPN) in what amounts to an elimination game in the World Baseball Classic (I'll avoid the easy joke and say it's the most important game any Pirates have played since 1997... oops). Ex-Bucco Esteban Loaizia is slotted to start for Mexico, but given Canada's heavy emphasis on the left handed batters and the fact that Oliver Perez hasn't pitched yet, I'd expect Ollie to take the mound for a couple innings tonight. That raises a question, since I'm sure the Pirates would rather have both guys in camp, who do they want back more?

I'd expect the Pirates to be hoping Bay and his likeable group of Canucks (how can you not like a team featuring a guy named Stubby Clapp?) beat Mexico and send Ollie back to camp. Bay, being an established position player without much to prove can probably gain more from the experience of playing in something like the WBC (different from a position player that has something to prove like Yury DeCaster, who's probably costing himself a spot on the roster by playing for the Netherlands, not that I think he'd trade the experience for anything in the world) than a guy like Perez, who I'd assume that Tracy and Colborn want as much time with as possible before the season starts. Given the performance of Paul Maholm to this point in the spring, I think it's safe to say that we should probably get Ollie into camp as soon as possible. Go Canada!

Casey's head

Take a look at this, specifically the picture at the top. The Pirates are telling everyone that Casey, who I believe has had a few concussions the last couple years, is OK after that incident yesterday. I can just see it now.

Dejan: Well, Sean, it's May 1st and you're hitting .215. Anything feeling different?

Casey: To be honest, my head still hurts from that serious beaning I took in March, but I don't really want to bother anyone with it. It's my problem, not Jim's, nor anyone elses. I get paid to go out on the field every day, so I'm just swinging away at the middle ball and hoping for the best.

Shock

So here's a question, which news this week has been less surprising, the fact that Barry Bonds took steroids or the fact that Neil Walker's wrist injury is going to take longer than expected to recover from. A Pirates prospect with an injury worse than we were lead to believe? What will happen next? Airplanes will fly! Dogs will bark! Red lights will turn green! OH THE HUMANITY!!!

Wow

Jason Bay and his Canada squad just pulled off what might be the upset of the World Baseball Classic, shocking the US squad 8-6. Bay put up another good showing today going 2-for-3 and adding a walk. He scored twice and essentially served as leadoff hitter for the Canadians as their first two hitters went a combined 1-for-10 today. He was removed from the game around the 7th inning, however. Since the US is the only team that's treating these games like Spring Training games (Buck Martinez rotates players in and out like this is, oh, I don't know, a Pirates/Reds split squad game or something) I can't figure out why Bay would've come out of the game. I didn't see anything that would've caused him to get hurt, but then again I don't figure the Canadians were looking to add another left-handed bat to their lineup either (as Bay is actually the only righty). Hopefully this isn't a big deal.

Also, half of the Buccos shut out half of the Reds today, with Tom Gorzellany, Marty McCleary, and Scott Strickland pitching three innings each. Strickland was especially impressive, throwing what looks like three perfect innings to close the game out (I say looks perfect because I only see the boxscore line of three innings, no hits and no walks, though a play-by-play isn't available and I can't say for sure). Of course this begs the question, "Why in God's name would Scott Strickland and his bionic elbow be throwing three innings right now?" The offense was lead by Craig Stansberry's second homer of the spring. The other half of the Pirates are playing the Yankees tonight, with Sean Burnett taking the mound for what I believe is his second start of the young spring.

Jim Sullivan and DL

I don't think I can recommend this interview of Dave Littlefield by Jim Sullivan enough. Sullivan asks him some tough questions and Littlefield answers them all. I don't exactly agree with all of DL's answers, but this is one of the more candid interviews with him that I've read. If you've got the 10-15 minutes or so necessary to read the whole thing, I'd definitely recommend doing so.

Q&A and Duke

Dejan's weekly Q&A is up today, and as usual he takes on a wide range of topics. He names Santos and Snell as having the inside track to take the last two rotation spots, and that seems pretty likely to me at this point. He again praises the emphasis Tracy has put on plate patience, and I'll admit that to this point in the spring it does seem that there's been some progress made. He also mentions that starting Monday he'll be off the beat for 15 days with Paul Meyer filling in. That means we can probably expect 15 days of DL and Jim Tracy puff pieces.

Also today we get a Pirates notebook focusing on Zach Duke's early spring struggles. It doesn't seem like too much to worry about it, he just seems to be having trouble spotting his two seamer, which is his out pitch. I saw him talking about it earlier and he didn't seem too concerned, he just said it's mostly a finesse thing that he expects to get better with time. Also in the notebook, Dejan reveals the limited no-trade clause included in Jack's contract. It's not really a big deal, it just means that Jack gets to pick six teams he can't be traded to before every season. It's pretty likely that the teams Jack would want to avoid couldn't afford him anymore anyways.

Jason Bay, eh?

Just finished up my TiVo aided viewing of the near shocking upset by South Africa over Canada, which the Canucks pulled out 11-8 with a 4 run 9th inning rally. Of course for the purposes of this blog, we'll talk about Jason Bay's performance first.

He had two hits, one of which should've been an error charged to the shortstop, the other of which was a towering double off of the left center wall off what looked like your typical SoCal surfer wearing the South African uniform, a guy by the name of Tyrone Lamont (a Reggie Cleveland All-Star if I've ever seen one). He also ripped a shot to third base, which was speared and turned into a fielder's choice. It also appeared that even South Africa was able to take advantage of his arm, which still looks pretty weak. Of course, he also seemed to be out of position most of the day (he was shaded towards center and the South Africans were banging hanging breaking balls down the line) which is more a coach's fault than his. He didn't look great against a team featuring zero major leaguers, but I don't know when the South African leagues play, I'd guess over our winter. It's likely that these guys are just finishing up a season as opposed to guys just starting theirs. It'll be interesting to see what Bay does today against Dontrelle Willis and the US.

As for the rest of team Canada, they have a guy named Stubby Clapp, already and all-WBC name. They also feature Matt Stairs, one of my favorite players to watch bat (one time when he was in Pittsburgh he swung so hard I swear a button on his shirt came undone). Also, Bay is the only regular that bats right-handed, which is downright bizarre. It also might mean that Mexico will save Ollie for their matchup with Canada on Friday, similar to how the US is sending Willis to the mound today.

South Africa made a bunch of errors, played poor outfield, and had a ton of wild pitches/passed balls, but still managed to give Canada a great game. It's a shame this game was on at 2:30 in the morning, a time when only hardcore baseball fans would even think about taping it. It was really a game that showed why the WBC might work, and almost no one saw it. It's hard for me to figure out why ESPN promotes the hell out of their stupid original programming, but puts baseball like this on at a time that almost no one can see it.

Bonds' other shoe drops

So turns out this Barry Bonds guy might have taken steroids. Actually, this is huge. Two reporters from the San Francisco Chronicle have compiled a massive amount of damning evidence that Bonds juiced up starting after the McGwire/Sosa homer fest of '99. They wrote a book about it due out March 27th and an excerpt will appear in SI this week. The article up about it on SI.com is definitely worth a read. I'm pretty sure that over time this is going to go a long way towards placing an asterik on everything that happened between 1998 and 2004.

As for me personally, I don't like Bonds. I never liked him (I'm still blaming the '91 and '92 NLCS losses on his lack of performance and on that awful, awful throw... you don't forgive or forget things that scar you when you're 6-7 years old, that's just how it works), but his recent "I'm so tired of everyone saying I'm on steroids that I just might quit" act REALLY wore on me, especially in the face of the obvious. What goes around comes around, and it's nice to see Bonds finally get his, especially after generally nice guys like McGwire, Palmiero, and Sosa got theirs.

The first WBC Pirate sighting

Damaso Marte made the first Bucco appearence in the first annual WBC, as he just got pulled after 2/3rds of an inning for the Domincan Republic in their opener against Venezuela. His stuff looked pretty good, his fastball hovered between 91 and 93 and seemed placed very well (he blew a high one past Carlos Guillen for a swining strike three) and his slider looked downright nasty. He got ahead in the count of each of the three hitters he faced, with Omar Vizquel working out a good at bat and lacing a double, Guillen strike out, and Bobby Abreu popping up to center. He was removed so that the righty Tavarez could pitch to Miguel Cabrera (who doubled in Vizquel, meaning Marte will be charged with a run). Still, it looked like a pretty good outing to me.

In another note, the Pirates weren't mentioned once during his performance, though his shaky late season performance with the White Sox was lauded, while Joe Morgan wondered why the White Sox soured so quickly (after three full years) on such a young (31 is the new 22 I guess) guy.

Also, this is a phenomenal game, definitely more intense than Spring Training. Maybe this thing isn't such a bad idea. The fans are really getting into and the players are playing hard.

I can't watch all of Mexico and the US, but I will TiVo it as most teams seem to be using two starters because of the pitch count and I'd guess Perez will be second out for Mexico after Rodrigo Lopez, and seeing Perez this early in the spring is high on my priority list. Jason Bay will also be in action for Canada against South Africa tonight, but it won't be aired on ESPN 2 until 2:30 AM (it's on ESPN Deportes at 10 but I don't get Deportes), so I'm going to check the box score and if it looks like Bay did anything of note, I'll set the TiVo and check it out in the morning.

Stats Geek on Jack

Today the Stats Geek tries to assuage the worries that Jack Wilson has been overpaid with this new contract (he admits he himself was worried about it). At first read it makes sense, but going deeper there's just something that just doesn't quite fit.

He compares Wilson's contract with those of Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera, Cristan Guzman, Omar Vizquel, and David Eckstein. He says that except Eckstein, Wilson's contract compares favorably with all of them. From the perspective that Wilson's contract falls smack in the middle and that he's definitely not better than Furcal or Eckstein and he definitely is better than Guzman and maybe Vizquel at this point of his career, while being at least comparable to Cabrera and Renteria, the contract makes sense. Of course, hindsight's always 20/20. Cabrera signed his contract after a 58 game run with the Red Sox where he sparked them to the Series with a .294/.320/.465 line. Renteria was a key component in the Murderer's Row of the 2004 Cards and had won back to back Gold Gloves. His offensive and defensive performance in Boston is much maligned, but his OPS dropped only form .728 to .721. Admittedly, Cristan Guzman's contract is an unmitigated disaster and Omar Vizquel was paid mostly on reputation.

Wilson on the other hand, is coming off of a .257/.299/.363 year. While all of those contracts were awarded by big market teams (except the Nats contract to Guzman, which is disqualified on the Jim Bowden factor) to free agent players coming off of career years, we (a small market team) gave that contract to a non-free agent player coming off of an awful year. The situations are not comparable. My complaint isn't that Jack Wilson will definitely not be worth the money that we're paying him, because he very well might, it's that it's at least as probable that he won't be worth the money and we had two years to figure out whether he was or not before comitting to the contract. It's worth noting that everyone (minus Vizquel) that signed those contracts are of comparable age to Wilson and all suffered dropoffs in play except Eckstein after signing the deals (minus Furcal who hasn't played yet). If anything, the comparison might be that people thought Renteria and Cabrera were maybe a little overpaid after they signed (the gut feeling many people had after we extended Jack), and one year later their contracts look like albatrosses.