Fear is only a sign of weakness
So the market has gone crazy, there's no use in debating that. The thing that I wonder about is why so many people are going all "woe is me" in regards of what this means for the Pirates. Here's the question: If the Pirates had limitless funds to spend, would you want them spent on 8 years of Alfonso Soriano at $136 million? No, you wouldn't. Would you want them spent on 4 years of Justin Speier at $18 million? Or three years of Alex Gonzalez at $14 million? No, you wouldn't. A crazy market only serves to do one thing, create bad deals. The Cubs have been forced to pay $17M/year for Soriano for 8 years when their window for him, Rammy, Lee, and a healthy pitching staff is maybe (maybe!) one or two years. And yeah, they'll be good for those 1 or 2 years, but by the end of this contract my guess is that Soriano is going to be Mo Vaughn, sitting at home watching baseball while being the highest player in the league. To a good GM, it's not worth it. But think of the possibilities this market creates for the Pirates.
Most of the time, people misunderstand Moneyball (yeah, I know, we're going back to Moneyball and the A's, but really, is there a better model besides maybe the Twins?) to mean that OBP is the key to evaluating players. Anyone that's read it knows this isn't the case; it's about exploiting market inefficiencies. If Justin Speier, a right handed reliever who's going to be 33 next year, is worth $18 million over four years, what is Mike Gonzalez worth in a trade? If Alex Gonzalez is worth $14 million over three years, what is Jack Wilson worth in a trade? Or Freddy Sanchez? If Alfonso Soriano is worth $136 million over 8 years, what is Jason Bay worth in a trade? Don't laugh, check the numbers, those two aren't nearly as different as you might think with Soriano playing outfield. If surviving in a small market is all about exploiting the inefficiencies (and it is) in the market, this is in incredibly inefficient market right now. Dave Littlefield is actually holding all the cards this off-season. Instead of doing something about it, he's sitting at the table folding every hand while other teams go crazy. He's designated so many players on the team as "untouchable" but the truth of the matter is, this team is rebuilding until it wins. No one should be untouchable, not in a market like this. This is DL's chance to redeem himself, to make up for year's of bad signings and awful drafts. He could reload the top two tiers of the minors this offseason and actually give Pirate fans something to be hopeful about maybe in 2008, but definitely 2009, 2010, and beyond. Instead, it's looking more and more like he's going to continue on his bleak course of destruction, keeping us a 75 win team at best for the forseeable future while all we can do is hope that he's fired sometime during the 2008 season and we hire someone slightly less stupid.
Most of the time, people misunderstand Moneyball (yeah, I know, we're going back to Moneyball and the A's, but really, is there a better model besides maybe the Twins?) to mean that OBP is the key to evaluating players. Anyone that's read it knows this isn't the case; it's about exploiting market inefficiencies. If Justin Speier, a right handed reliever who's going to be 33 next year, is worth $18 million over four years, what is Mike Gonzalez worth in a trade? If Alex Gonzalez is worth $14 million over three years, what is Jack Wilson worth in a trade? Or Freddy Sanchez? If Alfonso Soriano is worth $136 million over 8 years, what is Jason Bay worth in a trade? Don't laugh, check the numbers, those two aren't nearly as different as you might think with Soriano playing outfield. If surviving in a small market is all about exploiting the inefficiencies (and it is) in the market, this is in incredibly inefficient market right now. Dave Littlefield is actually holding all the cards this off-season. Instead of doing something about it, he's sitting at the table folding every hand while other teams go crazy. He's designated so many players on the team as "untouchable" but the truth of the matter is, this team is rebuilding until it wins. No one should be untouchable, not in a market like this. This is DL's chance to redeem himself, to make up for year's of bad signings and awful drafts. He could reload the top two tiers of the minors this offseason and actually give Pirate fans something to be hopeful about maybe in 2008, but definitely 2009, 2010, and beyond. Instead, it's looking more and more like he's going to continue on his bleak course of destruction, keeping us a 75 win team at best for the forseeable future while all we can do is hope that he's fired sometime during the 2008 season and we hire someone slightly less stupid.