Monday, October 30, 2006

Trade thoughts

As the old saying goes, you've got to trade something to get something. If Dave Littlefield is serious about adding some left-handed pop to the lineup, he's got to trade for something because the free agent market is less than promising. So who should DL give up? My candidates, in order.

  1. Mike Gonzalez- After I wrote my bullpen review, Charlie pointed out that decent-to-good left handed relievers brought us Brian Giles, Jack Wilson (when he was a top prospect in the Cardinals system), and helped bring us Freddy Sanchez. It can be argued (rather easily argued actually) that Gonzalez is better than Rincon, Christiansen, and Saurbeck. He should be fairly easy to replace from within. It's very unlikely that he'll match his 2006 again because of tendency to walk a ton of people. Trading Gonzalez now would be selling high. I think the Pirates have to seriously consider doing this.
  2. Damaso Marte- For all of the same reasons above, only Marte is less valuable to us than Gonzo is. Trading him would require picking up his option, a risk that would seem almost unfathomable for this organization.
  3. Jose Castillo- This is tricky. The Pirates can replace Castillo pretty easily from within by sticking Bautista at third and Freddy at second. The problem is that the fact that he was one of the worst regular players in the majors after June isn't exactly a secret. He's got to be worthless to all of the new-school GMs out there (Beane and the like, Epstein, Daniels, etc.) and he's extremely devalued to just about anyone else. Still, a stupid GM like Littlefield (Bowden, possibly Krivsky) would see a high ceiling on a semi-young player. The part that makes this tricky is that DL would have to outwit someone to trade Castillo for value. He may be better served as a throw-in to push a deal in our favor. Of course, trading Castillo now would be selling very low on a guy that could be a high value player.
  4. a.) b.) and c.) Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm in that order. Littlefield will certainly tread very carefully here, if he's going to trade any one of these three he's (hopefully) going to get something in return that can immediately contribute. Trading Snell now would likely be selling high on Snell and I don't think that's a bad idea.
    The obvious choice to try and trade here is Maholm because he's less talented than the other two or Gorzelanny.
  5. Jack Wilson- It's doubtful we can trade him for much of value because he's going to be overpaid the next couple years, but he can be traded on the same theory as Castillo, he shouldn't be hard to replace. We also have a bunch of middle infielders hovering around the AA/AAA level that can fill in as a utility guy if we do trade Jack.
  6. Freddy Sanchez- It's almost unfathomable that Littlefield will even think of this because of how upset the fans would get (which shouldn't be a factor but is). Sanchez is unlikely to ever repeat his 2006 and some GM would likely pay through the nose to get the NL batting champ. It would be the ultimate example of selling high. I'm not saying that Littlefield should trade Freddy, just that he shouldn't be completely closed off to the idea, especially if a huge offer comes his way.
  7. Jason Bay- Charlie's already hit the highlights on this one, but we'll recap the theory. The Pirates have lost 89, 95, and 95 games with Bay as the centerpiece of their offense. It is safe to say they can do that without him (this was the argument Branch Rickey made when he traded Ralph Kiner). Bay has immense value- far more than anyone else on the team has at this point. He's good, he's cheap, he's still fairly young. Again, not that they should trade Bay, just that they shouldn't dismiss the idea. The fans will revolt, but they'll be pissed during the Pirates 17th losing season with Bay in left field, too. Trading Bay or Sanchez is not breaking up the '98 Yankees. Dave Littlefield should be open to all avenues when it comes to making the Pirates better, and trading either of these two are certainly options.
  8. Random relievers- We've got a ton of these. Any of a number of guys can be tossed in to complete or round out deals. In fact, I hope that's why DL picked up guys like Juan Perez, Chavez, Rogers, etc. because the alternative is not comforting.