Fixing the Bucs

Two things have my wheels churning about the offseason a little bit, Dejan's online chat yesterday and the Bucs Dugout relaying of Ken Rosenthal's suggestion that the Pirates trade for Nick Johnson.

The first thing that struck me about Dejan's chat was one of the same things that Charlie noticed in his post about it yesterday, that the Pirates aren't willing to trade Mike Gonzalez because his ceiling is so high, but they are willing to trade Jose Castillo for that very reason. It is true that I've said in the past that trading Castillo wouldn't be a bad idea, I do think it's something the Pirates should look into, but not even considering trading Gonzalez is typical Pirates. Gonzalez is older, he plays a position that is traditionally more easily filled than Castillo's (especially on this most current incarnation of the Pirates, which is chock full of relievers), and he's having a great year that pretty much will have maximized his value. Not only that, but he's likely to backslide a little next year (his walks and WHIP are rather high), and he's been injured at least once in each of the past three seasons. With a long list of guys that can replace him (Torres has done fine in a couple stints as big league closer, Capps has the look of a guy that can close down the road, Sharpless and Bayliss have both been very good closers in the minors), Gonzo is probably the definition of a guy the Pirates should be looking to trade (don't get me wrong, I like Gonzalez a lot, I'm trying to look at this as a GM rather than a fan).

That brings us to Rosenthal's suggestion. His basic thought is that between Maholm, Duke, Gorzellany, Marte, Grabow, and Gonzalez we should be able to find two guys that the Nats would take for Johnson. He also suggests trading an infielder to open a spot up for Freddy Sanchez. I would assume that by that he means Castillo, though I don't know where Jose would play for the Nats (with Zimmerman at third and Vidro at second he would have to play short, which is a scary thought). At first this made sense to me, but with a closer look, it's probably a ridiculous suggestion. If the deal were to get done, it would probably have to be Castillo and Gonzalez for Johnson. Even thought they should, I doubt the Pirates would consider that (see above). Add in the previously mentioned fact that Castillo won't have a position there, and that with Castillo and Gonzo both arbitration eligible that they may end up being paid more money than Johnson's $5.5 million/year over the next three years, and I can't see this happening. But the question that it raised for me was more along the lines of whether or not it would be wise to deal a starter (meaning Duke, Snell, Maholm, Gorzellany). As Charlie points out in his post, the Pirates are no longer a pitching-rich organization (at least in terms of starting pitching). The Pirates want us to believe that Maholm, Duke, Snell, and Gorzellany and evolving into some type of Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, and Avery (or even some type of Beckett, Burnett, and Penny, or hell, even something similar to the young guys the Marlins have now). The gut reaction of many from their streak of recent good play is to think that maybe something like that could happen. I've never entirely believed that, and the Stats Geek uses his space today to provide ample evidence that it's much more likely that we end up with a stable of four league average pitchers than it is that we end up with four aces. Duke's good finish over an extended period last year and Gorzellany's short time in the majors bode better for them, but obviously nothing is a given. Jeremy Bonderman might be a good example of a guy that was brought up, allowed to struggle with a bad team, and eventually turned into a good pitcher, but the problem is that four years into his career he's still younger than Gorzellany, Maholm, and Snell (and only slightly older than Duke). But does this make them tradeable if the offer is right? I still don't know. A quick glance of potential free agent pitchers isn't exactly encouraging, somehow I see Jason Marquis being the guy that this front office goes after (I could explain, but it would make this even longer than it already is, I'll save that for another day, I promise). Who would we have to get in a trade to make a rotation of Duke, Snell, Gorzellany, Marquis, and Chacon an acceptable thing? Nick Johnson? Babe Ruth? Superman? Jesus? Or is the difference between a healthy Chacon and Maholm really not that much? Keep in mind that if that's the decision we make, what could we really get for Maholm in a trade? These are all vital questions that I do not trust the Pirates' front office with this offseason (though I think I might have an idea for a new poll tomorrow).