The X Man

Because there is nothing that can happen to turn this blog into "Where Have You Gone, Chuck Nagy?" I've been trying to find reasons that maybe what happened yesterday wasn't as bad as the immediate gut reaction of the entire Pirate internet community suggested. Clearly, the way that yesterday's moves will be percieved down the road rest on two players and two players only: Xavier Nady and Oliver Perez. This isn't to say that Littlefield didn't screw up royally on the Craig Wilson situation, the Kip Wells situation, or the Sean Casey trade, because I think that he did. It's not to say that I don't think Shawn Chacon will be a nightmare, because I'm fairly certain that he will. It's just to say that in the long run, DL's success or failure tomorrow will likely be measured by two players.

The Oliver Perez situation is cut and dried. If he ever regains 2004 form, we lose. Not even Lastings Milledge could make that a fair trade. There's especially nothing Xavier Nady can do to prevent that. That's only because you would never get an equal return for Johann Santana in a trade. Luckily for us, most pitchers that venture down the road Perez is on right now don't make sudden U-turns back towards Sandy Koufax-dom. As much as all of us are saying "You watch, Oliver Perez will win a Cy Young Award next year," we all know in our guts that such an occurence is extremely improbable at best unless Pedro Martinez can have some kind of effect on him. That's the Oliver Perez situation, front to back and back to front, end of story.

The Xavier Nady situation is a little more interesting. Nady is the one person we will be able to watch on a daily basis to judge these moves by, similar to Ty Wigginton in 2004. The comparison we should be making with Nady is not to Craig Wilson or to anyone else that's recently departed, but instead to Ryan Shealy. It seems pretty clear that Littlefield decided that Nady was a better fit at first base than Shealy would be. Joe Starky indicates at the Trib that the Rockies request was Gonzo for Shealy, so minus an almost miraculous revival for Perez, Littlefield chose Hernandez for Nady instead. The question is, was that a mistake?

Let's look at a quick tale of the tape: Nady is only 9 months older than Shealy (Nady was born in November 1978, Shealy was born in August 1979), with much more Major League experience. Shealy killed the ball last year at Colorado Springs (SLG: .601) but he hasn't been quite as impressive at altitude this year (SLG: .568, OPS .918). In his two previous minor league seasons at Visalia and Tulsa (A+ and AA), his numbers were similar to this year's numbers, without the altitude bump that Colorado Springs offers. Nady killed the ball in AAA in 2004, the year Littlefield was denied in his attempt to acquire him instead of Jason Bay, though it should be noted that those numbers were racked up in the hitter friendly PCL (though at Portland and not the altitude of Colorado Springs). Since 2005, when Nady became a full-time Major Leaguer, he hasn't been nearly as good, though it should be noted that he's played most of his games in the past two years in pitcher friendly Petco Park and Shea Stadium. Nady has fought through some injuries in his time as a Met and he currently has a cracked bone in his right wrist (SOUND THE JODY GERUT ALARM!!!). Wilbur Miller already has his profile of Nady up (talk about quick work) and indicates that there is at least some reason to believe that if he's healthy and given regular playing time, he may find some of the power that he had as a prospect, which makes sense given the growth in power he's shown this year (one more homer and the same amount of doubles as last year in 60 less ABs).

So where do we come to on Nady? It seems unfair to me to say "DL failed miserably yesterday, but if he would've gotten Shealy, things would've been OK," before giving Nady at least a chance. He'll likely be a better first baseman than Casey would be next year and there would seem to be a chance that he's at least as good of an option as Shealy would be. Knowing what we currently know right now, choosing Hernandez and Perez for Nady instead of Gonzo for Shealy may not turn out to be that bad of a move. Of course, it could also be a nightmare, but it's probably not fair to assume that it will based opinions and minor league stats without having seen Nady play at all and without knowing what Shealy will do as a big league regular.

Just don't expect a similar post about Shawn Chacon now, I'm not sure there's much light at the end of that tunnel besides "he might not suck as much now that he's out of the AL East."