Santos vs. Duckworth

Given that Ian Snell has earned himself a slot in the rotation (and he has), that Sean Burnett and Tom Gorzellany have been good but need some time in AAA before they're ready for the show (they do), that no one really cares whether Jose Hernandez or Yurie DeCaster is the utility man (do you?) and that my boy Ryan Vogelsong has pitched himself into oblivion (he certainly has) there's only one interesting position battle left in Spring Training, the rumble for the right to be the last starter in the mighty Pittsburgh Pirates rotation, Brandon Duckworth vs. Victor Santos.

This really hasn't been much of a concern all spring, it seemed that once Vogelsong crumbled Santos would get a spot in the rotation pretty easily. Duckworth, however, has pitched pretty well recently and the propaganda machine has written some columns to make sure you notice. I've also noticed that public opinion is swinging towards Duckworth, and I'm not so sure that it should be. It's a given that in 13 1/3 innings this spring Duckworth has looked better than Santos has in his 9 2/3. It's also true that it's just that, spring training.

Victor Santos isn't Cy Young, he isn't Zach Duke, he's not even a healthy Kip Wells. What he is is a pitcher that's been in the NL Central for two years, and in 2005 (using the equivalence stats from Baseball Prospectus 2006, which I didn't get around to ordering until last week but is certainly worth the money) he had a year that was about equivalent to Kip Wells, Mark Redman, and Josh Fogg and better than Oliver Perez. He'll provide about the same for the Pirates this year, ERA around 4.50, and WHIP around 1.4, until Gorzelanny and/or Burnett are ready, which could be sooner than anyone thinks. To that end, those numbers aren't especially bad. The problem comes when four out of 5 guys in your rotation are putting up numbers that bad or worse (as we saw in most of 2005). Brandon Duckworth, on the other hand, might be a bigger bust in his career than Ryan Vogelsong. Last year he flamed out in the Astros rotation and again in the pen, and was quickly sent back down to AAA. When I tried to find him in BPro, I realized he wasn't even there. According to WTM's site, he had a whopping .851 OPS against in TRIPLE A last year. This year, despite his impressive ERA this spring, he's walked 6 batters in only 13 innings. What's his biggest problem been in the majors? Control. If the Pirates want, I'm fine with giving him a spot in the pen over Vogelsong and letting him mop other people's messes up. Vogelsong has certainly worn out the patience of just about everyone and has let another chance slip through his fingers. I've always been one of his bigger defenders, and I'm fairly sure he'd be a better middle man (in the Brian Meadows type role) than Duckworth would be, but at this point leaving Vogie off the roster for Duckworth is at least justifiable. Given his history though, putting Duckworth in the rotation would likely be nothing short of another disaster.