The rotation, sans Kip
Let me start off by saying that I really don't care what Dave Littlefield says, until I see Kip Wells on the mound I refuse to believe he's going to pitch before April. This is a serious clot that apparently has formed from the motion of pitching, meaning thateven if treating it with blood thinners makes it go away, pitching will make it come back. That being said, our rotation has suddenly taken a scary turn when you really look at things, not to mention the fact that two spots will now be open. So let's look at the options
In no matter what
Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm
Comment: Holy crap, those three look terrifying together as the top three in the rotation and the only people with set jobs. Kip was bad last year, but without him our rotation is suddenly anchored by three lefties aged 24, almost 23, and 23 respectively on Opening Day (Duke turns 23 on April 19th, Maholm 24 in June, and Ollie 25 in August) with a total of 38 Major League wins. Add in the fact that Duke can't possibly match his numbers from down the stretch last year, Perez is an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a question mark, and Maholm could probably use a full season at AAA (he's made a total of 12 career starts above AA) and this is a top three with a high ceiling, but without a guy like Wells as an anchor, they also leave a ton of questions.
In the running despite their lack of ability
Ryan Vogelsong, Victor Santos
Comment: I like Vogelsong more than most Pirate fans, but I don't think I'd trust him to start again. He finally seemed to find a groove out of the pen last year and I think he's better off staying there. Still, he's one of the players that have had a very positive reaction to Colborn and Tracy (my dad saw him on TV talking about how he was chalking up last year as a "lost year" and there were times when he'd go two weeks without being asked by the team to touch a baseball, to say he's bitter is an understatement) and he wouldn't be the worst option to fill a spot in the rotation for a couple months. Santos' numbers in Milwaukee last year were worse than RV's, but he did make 24 starts. None of his career numbers are that impressive, but if we don't use him, we lose him (he's the Rule V guy) and I'm guessing Littlefield will want him somewhere now that the pitching depth is drying up faster than... I can't even think of an analogy here.
In the running but shouldn't be due to lack of experience
Sean Burnett
Comment: I like Sean Burnett a lot. I saw him pitch in person a couple times in 2004 after his callup and he really impressed me. The fact remains that he has not pitched in a game of any kind since late August 2004 and it is a huge task to ask a guy with a total of 13 Major League starts to take over a year off, then hop right back into the rotation. I'd feel much better with him starting the season out in Indy no matter how impressive his spring is, though that seems unlikely now that Wells is hurt, especially since Burnett has shown no lingering effects from that injury thus far this spring.
The X-factor
Ian Snell
Comment: I don't really know how Snell will fit in to this mix. He was electric at times in AAA last year and was fantastic in his start against the Rocket in September, but doesn't really have a third pitch and all indications from within the organization are that they don't like the guy. If he can buckle down and develop even a decent changeup this spring, he should be an automatic for the rotation.
Starts with "B", ends with "UST", and has nothing to do with Anna Benson
Brian Bullington, John Van Benschoten
Comment: Ideally, this Kip injury wouldn't be a problem because these two guys would be ready to hop right into the rotation give their ages (JVB is almost 26 now, Bullington will be 26 in September, both are at least a year older than our entire top 3 save for Bullington's mere 319 day advantage over Perez). Instead, Bullington likely won't pitch in games until sometime around mid-summer after his surgery for a torn labrum last year and it will take a miracle for him to be ready for a September call-up, especially given Van Benschoten's time table to return from a similar injury. Van Benschoten is still feeling shoulder stiffness from his surgery for his partially torn labrum and isn't expected to throw until sometime later this week at the earliest. He'll likely start out at AAA and hope the shoulder gets better. Even if it does, he hasn't really put up good numbers at any level since 2003 in AA, and even those were merely average. With all the time he's had off, it would be a stretch to expect him to be ready to contribute to the Pirates in 2006.
The Aftermath
There are two other options, sign Pedro Astacio (who is a giant risk at his age, especially given that last year was the only year since 2002 he's thrown over 100 innings) or trade someone (we all know DL has been chomping at the bit to deal Craiggers) for pitching. I don't know what the market is at the moment, but I don't imagine CWills would bring us that much. Besides that, we're left with a talented but inexperienced top three and four other guys who probably shouldn't be starting games in the big leagues left to fill the last two spots. It's possible Snell comes around, learns a changeup, and fills one slot while Vogelsong or Santos does a decent job holding the last spot until Burnett is ready sometime in May, but I don't know if I'd count on it.
In no matter what
Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm
Comment: Holy crap, those three look terrifying together as the top three in the rotation and the only people with set jobs. Kip was bad last year, but without him our rotation is suddenly anchored by three lefties aged 24, almost 23, and 23 respectively on Opening Day (Duke turns 23 on April 19th, Maholm 24 in June, and Ollie 25 in August) with a total of 38 Major League wins. Add in the fact that Duke can't possibly match his numbers from down the stretch last year, Perez is an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a question mark, and Maholm could probably use a full season at AAA (he's made a total of 12 career starts above AA) and this is a top three with a high ceiling, but without a guy like Wells as an anchor, they also leave a ton of questions.
In the running despite their lack of ability
Ryan Vogelsong, Victor Santos
Comment: I like Vogelsong more than most Pirate fans, but I don't think I'd trust him to start again. He finally seemed to find a groove out of the pen last year and I think he's better off staying there. Still, he's one of the players that have had a very positive reaction to Colborn and Tracy (my dad saw him on TV talking about how he was chalking up last year as a "lost year" and there were times when he'd go two weeks without being asked by the team to touch a baseball, to say he's bitter is an understatement) and he wouldn't be the worst option to fill a spot in the rotation for a couple months. Santos' numbers in Milwaukee last year were worse than RV's, but he did make 24 starts. None of his career numbers are that impressive, but if we don't use him, we lose him (he's the Rule V guy) and I'm guessing Littlefield will want him somewhere now that the pitching depth is drying up faster than... I can't even think of an analogy here.
In the running but shouldn't be due to lack of experience
Sean Burnett
Comment: I like Sean Burnett a lot. I saw him pitch in person a couple times in 2004 after his callup and he really impressed me. The fact remains that he has not pitched in a game of any kind since late August 2004 and it is a huge task to ask a guy with a total of 13 Major League starts to take over a year off, then hop right back into the rotation. I'd feel much better with him starting the season out in Indy no matter how impressive his spring is, though that seems unlikely now that Wells is hurt, especially since Burnett has shown no lingering effects from that injury thus far this spring.
The X-factor
Ian Snell
Comment: I don't really know how Snell will fit in to this mix. He was electric at times in AAA last year and was fantastic in his start against the Rocket in September, but doesn't really have a third pitch and all indications from within the organization are that they don't like the guy. If he can buckle down and develop even a decent changeup this spring, he should be an automatic for the rotation.
Starts with "B", ends with "UST", and has nothing to do with Anna Benson
Brian Bullington, John Van Benschoten
Comment: Ideally, this Kip injury wouldn't be a problem because these two guys would be ready to hop right into the rotation give their ages (JVB is almost 26 now, Bullington will be 26 in September, both are at least a year older than our entire top 3 save for Bullington's mere 319 day advantage over Perez). Instead, Bullington likely won't pitch in games until sometime around mid-summer after his surgery for a torn labrum last year and it will take a miracle for him to be ready for a September call-up, especially given Van Benschoten's time table to return from a similar injury. Van Benschoten is still feeling shoulder stiffness from his surgery for his partially torn labrum and isn't expected to throw until sometime later this week at the earliest. He'll likely start out at AAA and hope the shoulder gets better. Even if it does, he hasn't really put up good numbers at any level since 2003 in AA, and even those were merely average. With all the time he's had off, it would be a stretch to expect him to be ready to contribute to the Pirates in 2006.
The Aftermath
There are two other options, sign Pedro Astacio (who is a giant risk at his age, especially given that last year was the only year since 2002 he's thrown over 100 innings) or trade someone (we all know DL has been chomping at the bit to deal Craiggers) for pitching. I don't know what the market is at the moment, but I don't imagine CWills would bring us that much. Besides that, we're left with a talented but inexperienced top three and four other guys who probably shouldn't be starting games in the big leagues left to fill the last two spots. It's possible Snell comes around, learns a changeup, and fills one slot while Vogelsong or Santos does a decent job holding the last spot until Burnett is ready sometime in May, but I don't know if I'd count on it.