Joe Randa
2005 key stats: .276/.335/.452 with 62 XBH (17 HR, 43 2B, 2 3B) in 609 PAs (555 ABs)
2006 ZiPS: .277/.332/.440 with 57 XBH (14, 41, 2) in 534 ABs
Now that it's Monday it's time to continue with predictions. After Castillo on Friday that brings us to Randa today.
Randa is, to say the least, an intriguing guy to make a prediction for. Last year he set career highs in homers (previous high, 16) and doubles (previous high, 36) with his highest OBP since 1999 and a SLG that he'd only put up once since 1999. He did all of this at the age of 35. Since players don't just get better at the age of 35, this means one of two things, either he juiced up (we'll call that unlikely, though admittedly, just about anything is possible) or something drastically changed from 2004. A quick look shows that about 60% of his PAs last year came with the Reds, so we can assume about 30% of his season ABs came at the Great American Ballpark. His numbers showed a pretty drastic decline after he got traded to the pitcher's haven of Petco Park in San Diego, so we can safely assume that his numbers last year are at least somewhat inflated by the GAB. I think it's fair to say that when it comes to righties, PNC Park is more like Petco than it is like Great American (though not quite as bad, PNC really is a good middle ground), which means that for our purposes his 2005 numbers are a bit inflated. That means that we might be best served looking at his 2004 numbers in KC, .287/.343/.408.
So what can we expect from Randa next year? Well, we shouldn't really expect him to get hurt and for Freddy to see a lot of action at third. Even at 36 he's been extremely durable in his career, with the lowest total of games he's played in any season since leaving Pittsburgh in '97 being 128 in 2004 (KFFL says he had a knee injury and I'll admit that that could account for his low SLG that year). Also, using his range numbers from BR and his fielding percentage, we're getting a guy that's slightly above average in the field, though these predictions are purely offensive (in more ways that one for some of you, I'm sure). I'll also openly admit that though I think signing Randa was a stupid move, I like the guy a lot and I do think he'll be a little better than Sanchez will next year (not $4 million better, mind you, but hey, I'm not in charge).
That being said, I'm looking for about .270/.335/.430 out of Randa this year, with a stronger first half than second half. If we assume that his poor second half last year can be at least somewhat attributed to Petco and his poor 2004 SLG can be chalked up to his knee, that seems like a pretty safe guess to me. I'd guess his average, and thus his OBP since he doesn't walk a ton, will drop a little based on his age and I'd be shocked to see more than about 12 homers out of him with him hitting into PNC's cavernous left field. He'll also average 21.3 smiles per game, the highest out of any Pittsburgh athlete without a first name thats a homonym for a ketchup company. Bill James be damned, you just can't put a price on a stat like that.
2006 ZiPS: .277/.332/.440 with 57 XBH (14, 41, 2) in 534 ABs
Now that it's Monday it's time to continue with predictions. After Castillo on Friday that brings us to Randa today.
Randa is, to say the least, an intriguing guy to make a prediction for. Last year he set career highs in homers (previous high, 16) and doubles (previous high, 36) with his highest OBP since 1999 and a SLG that he'd only put up once since 1999. He did all of this at the age of 35. Since players don't just get better at the age of 35, this means one of two things, either he juiced up (we'll call that unlikely, though admittedly, just about anything is possible) or something drastically changed from 2004. A quick look shows that about 60% of his PAs last year came with the Reds, so we can assume about 30% of his season ABs came at the Great American Ballpark. His numbers showed a pretty drastic decline after he got traded to the pitcher's haven of Petco Park in San Diego, so we can safely assume that his numbers last year are at least somewhat inflated by the GAB. I think it's fair to say that when it comes to righties, PNC Park is more like Petco than it is like Great American (though not quite as bad, PNC really is a good middle ground), which means that for our purposes his 2005 numbers are a bit inflated. That means that we might be best served looking at his 2004 numbers in KC, .287/.343/.408.
So what can we expect from Randa next year? Well, we shouldn't really expect him to get hurt and for Freddy to see a lot of action at third. Even at 36 he's been extremely durable in his career, with the lowest total of games he's played in any season since leaving Pittsburgh in '97 being 128 in 2004 (KFFL says he had a knee injury and I'll admit that that could account for his low SLG that year). Also, using his range numbers from BR and his fielding percentage, we're getting a guy that's slightly above average in the field, though these predictions are purely offensive (in more ways that one for some of you, I'm sure). I'll also openly admit that though I think signing Randa was a stupid move, I like the guy a lot and I do think he'll be a little better than Sanchez will next year (not $4 million better, mind you, but hey, I'm not in charge).
That being said, I'm looking for about .270/.335/.430 out of Randa this year, with a stronger first half than second half. If we assume that his poor second half last year can be at least somewhat attributed to Petco and his poor 2004 SLG can be chalked up to his knee, that seems like a pretty safe guess to me. I'd guess his average, and thus his OBP since he doesn't walk a ton, will drop a little based on his age and I'd be shocked to see more than about 12 homers out of him with him hitting into PNC's cavernous left field. He'll also average 21.3 smiles per game, the highest out of any Pittsburgh athlete without a first name thats a homonym for a ketchup company. Bill James be damned, you just can't put a price on a stat like that.