Jack Wilson

2005 key stats: .257/.295/.363 with 39 XBH (24 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR) in 639 PAs (587 ABs)
2006 ZiPS: .272/.314/.395 with 49 XBH (31, 8, 10) in 628 ABs.

It's time for the prediction on maybe the toughest guy on the team to get a read on, Jack Wilson. After his breakout 2004 (.308/.335/.459) he heavily slumped for almost all of last year until a hot September brought his numbers up to the level they've been at almost his entire career. He had an appendectomy in the offseason and it's hard to say how long it affected him for. One argument is through April, because May was statistically his second best month last season. On the other hand, he still stunk in May last year, putting up a .306/.413 month for a .719 OPS. A .719 OPS would've been worse than every month he had in 2004 except two. Still, we'll use April as the cutoff for the injury because he was truly awful in April and just pretty bad from May-August. Let's take a look at his key stats without April included. It gives us a .272/.312/.389 line for 2005. That's also almost exactly what his ZiPS look like for the upcoming year. I didn't project his other numbers (like doubles, triples, homers) out for a healthy April, but I'd bet they're very similar as well. That's not really incredibly encouraging, especially given the fact that Tracy will probably use him as his two hitter next year.

The key for Jack, which is unmeasurable (which I suppose would lead some to tell me it doesn't exists, but what the hell, this is my site) is what an incredible streak hitter he is. When he gets on a roll like he did last year in September or at the beginning of '04, he can hit just about anything. He's a great baserunner, and thusly he ends up with more doubles and triples than you'd expect out of a guy with his speed and hitting ability. The problem is that it's a two way door, and when he slumps he looks like he did from April through August last year (minus May), overthinking, spending waaaay too much time in the cage (he was swinging last year until his hands bled when he was in the worst parts of his slump), swinging at a ton of first pitches, and weakly grounding out a LOT. Since he's such a free swinger, he gets really really hot and really really cold, and he also has trouble breaking out of either phase. Of course, this is a good thing if he's on a hot streak.

What I think all this means is that April will be the most important month for Jack next year. The confidence he built up in the first month of '04 carried him into the break, while the awful start he got off to in '05 took until September to shake off (again, just because May was his second best month didn't make it a good month for him). If he doesn't get out to a great start look for him to finish out right around his ZiPS (which are pretty much on par for the rest. If he's above average in April, we might be be able to expect a little better. I do think that 2004 wasn't entirely a fluke and that he's a better hitter than he's shown from 2001-2003, and 2004, but that's based on nothing but the fact that I like the guy (well, that and his minor league numbers, which brought some pretty good OPS, though we're way beyond that point in his career now and they probably don't mean that much). I've been saying all offseason I think we can expect about a .280 batting average for him. I'd also guess some of his doubles power will return this year, bringing his SLG back up a little. That brings us to about a .280/.320/.420 line, which seems just about right to me.