The Illusion of Competition
This is part one of my "Dave Littlefield is the Smartest GM in the National League" series, or perhaps more accurately "Why I think Dave Littlefield is an evil genius." The Introduction can be found here, part two here, part three here, and part four here.
The Illusion of Competition is something that I've started to talk about a couple times in the past after the Randa and Casey moves. I've also seen it called other things elsewhere, like "The Drive for 75" (at OnlyBucs) but I'm going to stick with the "Illusion of Competition." The idea is that Dave Littlefield set out in the offseason with the goal of building a team that wouldn't actually compete, but instead appear to be improved enough to get the average, typical Pirate fan interested in the team. He doesn't care what I think, I'll probably be at games next year no matter what. He probably doesn't care what most of you readers think, because let's face it, if you live in Pittsburgh and take the time to read Pirates blogs in the offseason you're probably going to games next year as well. If you don't live in Pittsburgh, you probably aren't going to the games either. His goal this offseason was to reach the typical late March-early August Pirate fan whose ears perk up every spring for baseball, then get disillusioned by the time the Steelers break camp, the ones who won't come to games if the team isn't playing well.
I couldn't full describe what I thought Littlefield was doing until Scott at Cardnilly started his great series of posts that's he's calling "Declaration of Bias." The premise is quite simple, everyone has gut opinions about players that don't really follow any rhyme or reason. For example, I loathe John Grabow but really think Ryan Vogelsong might be a decent pitcher some day. There's really no reason that I think that, it's irrational and illogical, but I do and there's not much I can do to change it. Since most fans don't spend the same time of day obsessing over the Pittsburgh Pirates that I do (and I don't hold this against anyone mind you, I do realize that most people consider me certifiably insane when it comes to the Pirates), their whole opinions of the players the team and are based on this bias, this gut feeling. This offseason, it seems to me that Littlefield used this gut feeling to build a more fan friendly team.
The first move he made is an easy example of this. Brad Eldred got the call up towards the end of last season. He probably performed beyond what we should've reasonably expected given his meteoric rise through the minors, but Littlefield, knowing he would have money to spend in the offseason, harped on his strikeout rate (which I'll admit was atrocious). He was creating a public bias towards Brad Eldred. In the offseason he goes out and makes a decent trade from a baseball standpoint, Dave Williams for Sean Casey. The thing is, Pittsburgh loves Sean Casey. He's a big guy that's from Upper Saint Clair, does charity work, looks like he can hit a bunch of homers (even though he won't, remember that perception is everything), and smiles a lot. No one even spent a second thinking that his numbers last year were worse than DARYLE WARD'S because Pittsburgh's Golden Boy had returned home. Dave Littlefield will never for one second be blamed by the masses if Sean Casey fails next year. Sure, maybe the team was better off for 2007 and beyond with Craig Wilson and eventually Eldred at first and guys like McLouth and Gerut and Craig in right, but to the casual observer the Pirates had just added a big name and become more competitive for 2006.
The next major move is third base. Freddy Sanchez, though he has similar numbers to Bill Mueller, is viewed by most of the public as a third baseman with no power, and thus of no use to a competitive baseball team. I sometimes get the impression that for some unknown reason people are still angry at Sanchez for the Suppan and Saurbeck trades of late 2003 (Boston still feels like they got hosed in those deals, the Sports Guy mentions it in his book, published 2 years after the fact, and my friend from Boston still talks about what a bad trade it was to give up Suppan and Saurbeck for Sanchez, he's right too, those two did nothing for the Sox and Sanchez has turned into a productive Major Leaguer). The point? From a casual perspective, there's a bias against Freddy Sanchez as an everyday third baseman. Enter Joe Randa. Joe may be 36 and may be a little slower than Freddy, not as smooth with the glove, and not much of a better hitter than, but he'll probably hit 10-15 homers next year (probably more than Freddy will hit) and he sure will smile a lot and remind everyone of 1997. From a baseball standpoint we didn't get any better for 2006 and we probably got worse for 2007 and beyond (because at-bats will be taken away from Sanchez and probably Jose Bautista) but to a casual Pirates fan we just went out and added someone that they've always liked, and we did it for the second time in the same offseason.
The final move is Craig Wilson. I think deep down a lot of people percieve Craig as the goofy guy with long hair that strikes out a lot and plays shitty right field, though I think the front office may have shown their own biases here, because Craig certainly has a cult following in the 'Burgh. Instead of Craig Wilson they added Jeromy Burnitz. Burnitz is old, he strikes out just as much as Craig Wilson, and at this point he pretty much sucks, but a lot of Pirates fans watched him put up good numbers from 1997-2001 in Milwaukee. Lots of fans remember seeing him gunning down runners at the plate on BBTN. He's a lefty and yeah, chances are decent that he'll take advantage of PNC Park and hit some dingers next year. Plus, to the casual fan he's a fairly big name that signed to come here to Pittsburgh and he isn't Craig Wilson.
Now in the same offseason we've added two fan favorites in Casey and Randa and two fairly big names in Burnitz and Hernandez, as well as inking Jason Bay for the next four years. The papers keep talking about how great of a guy Sean Casey is and how good he was from '99-'01, the keep talking about Randa's great year in '97 and that magical team. The Tracy quotes about the "intangibles" those guys bring are everywhere. Dave Littlefield is grinning like the Cheshire Cat and talking about their commitment to winning. It's so much all at once that even someone as cynical as I am wants to believe they'll be better
My point today is that Littlefield isn't stupid. He knows that if he doesn't spend the $15 million and he puts out a team that wins 70 games next year, he's probably getting canned. If he spends the money and puts together a team that wins 75 games with players that the fans like Randa and Casey, well it's the system's fault for not letting us spend as much as the Yankees, it might be some of the players fault for underperforming, it was bad luck because people got hurt, but it sure isn't Dave Littlefield's fault. He could put just as much effort into building a team that actually contends, but that involves taking risks. Building a contender in Pittsburgh certainly isn't easy. It first off requires good drafts (not his strong suit, take a look at WTM's site for the draft summaries under Littlefield) and taking a risk on players other teams don't want. Guys like Paul Konerko and AJ Burnett don't sign with teams like the Pirates, so to build a contender certain risks have to be taken. We'd have to settle for guys like Milton Bradley. The problem is, from the front office perspective, Bradley could go insane or get hurt just as easily as he could help the team out. Thus, it's easier to bring in players that appeal to casual fans and to create an illusion of competition than it is to take the risks involved with actually competing.
It's not hard to see the front office trying to create these biases, this illusion. Whenever I read something from the Pirates front office, I feel like it's coming straight from Big Brother. Craig Wilson strikes out too much. Strikeouts are always bad. Jeromy Burnitz is the answer. Strike outs are a necessary evil. I feel like Winston at a Party rally. We are at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia. We are at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
This brings us to the end of the incredibly long part one of this series (I'd say this is the longest segment, but I can't promise anything). I'll use the next post to discuss what I'm going to call the "Wilson Effect" and how it affects Dave Littlefield's talent evaluation.
EDIT(3:41)- I know this comes off like I'm attacking casual Pirate fans for being stupid. I'm not and I don't mean for that to be taken out of this in any way shape or form. Rather, I'm just trying to illustrate how I feel the team is taking advantage of the casual Pirate fan. I fully understand that most people go to a couple games a year, flip on the TV a few nights a week, read about it in the paper and don't think about the Pirates beyond that. I know that most people don't know (or have time to know) what OPS or VORP or Range Factor is or who Bill James is and I'm fine with that. It just seems to me that the front office of the team is preying on that exact fact and using it to their advantage against casual fans.
The Illusion of Competition is something that I've started to talk about a couple times in the past after the Randa and Casey moves. I've also seen it called other things elsewhere, like "The Drive for 75" (at OnlyBucs) but I'm going to stick with the "Illusion of Competition." The idea is that Dave Littlefield set out in the offseason with the goal of building a team that wouldn't actually compete, but instead appear to be improved enough to get the average, typical Pirate fan interested in the team. He doesn't care what I think, I'll probably be at games next year no matter what. He probably doesn't care what most of you readers think, because let's face it, if you live in Pittsburgh and take the time to read Pirates blogs in the offseason you're probably going to games next year as well. If you don't live in Pittsburgh, you probably aren't going to the games either. His goal this offseason was to reach the typical late March-early August Pirate fan whose ears perk up every spring for baseball, then get disillusioned by the time the Steelers break camp, the ones who won't come to games if the team isn't playing well.
I couldn't full describe what I thought Littlefield was doing until Scott at Cardnilly started his great series of posts that's he's calling "Declaration of Bias." The premise is quite simple, everyone has gut opinions about players that don't really follow any rhyme or reason. For example, I loathe John Grabow but really think Ryan Vogelsong might be a decent pitcher some day. There's really no reason that I think that, it's irrational and illogical, but I do and there's not much I can do to change it. Since most fans don't spend the same time of day obsessing over the Pittsburgh Pirates that I do (and I don't hold this against anyone mind you, I do realize that most people consider me certifiably insane when it comes to the Pirates), their whole opinions of the players the team and are based on this bias, this gut feeling. This offseason, it seems to me that Littlefield used this gut feeling to build a more fan friendly team.
The first move he made is an easy example of this. Brad Eldred got the call up towards the end of last season. He probably performed beyond what we should've reasonably expected given his meteoric rise through the minors, but Littlefield, knowing he would have money to spend in the offseason, harped on his strikeout rate (which I'll admit was atrocious). He was creating a public bias towards Brad Eldred. In the offseason he goes out and makes a decent trade from a baseball standpoint, Dave Williams for Sean Casey. The thing is, Pittsburgh loves Sean Casey. He's a big guy that's from Upper Saint Clair, does charity work, looks like he can hit a bunch of homers (even though he won't, remember that perception is everything), and smiles a lot. No one even spent a second thinking that his numbers last year were worse than DARYLE WARD'S because Pittsburgh's Golden Boy had returned home. Dave Littlefield will never for one second be blamed by the masses if Sean Casey fails next year. Sure, maybe the team was better off for 2007 and beyond with Craig Wilson and eventually Eldred at first and guys like McLouth and Gerut and Craig in right, but to the casual observer the Pirates had just added a big name and become more competitive for 2006.
The next major move is third base. Freddy Sanchez, though he has similar numbers to Bill Mueller, is viewed by most of the public as a third baseman with no power, and thus of no use to a competitive baseball team. I sometimes get the impression that for some unknown reason people are still angry at Sanchez for the Suppan and Saurbeck trades of late 2003 (Boston still feels like they got hosed in those deals, the Sports Guy mentions it in his book, published 2 years after the fact, and my friend from Boston still talks about what a bad trade it was to give up Suppan and Saurbeck for Sanchez, he's right too, those two did nothing for the Sox and Sanchez has turned into a productive Major Leaguer). The point? From a casual perspective, there's a bias against Freddy Sanchez as an everyday third baseman. Enter Joe Randa. Joe may be 36 and may be a little slower than Freddy, not as smooth with the glove, and not much of a better hitter than, but he'll probably hit 10-15 homers next year (probably more than Freddy will hit) and he sure will smile a lot and remind everyone of 1997. From a baseball standpoint we didn't get any better for 2006 and we probably got worse for 2007 and beyond (because at-bats will be taken away from Sanchez and probably Jose Bautista) but to a casual Pirates fan we just went out and added someone that they've always liked, and we did it for the second time in the same offseason.
The final move is Craig Wilson. I think deep down a lot of people percieve Craig as the goofy guy with long hair that strikes out a lot and plays shitty right field, though I think the front office may have shown their own biases here, because Craig certainly has a cult following in the 'Burgh. Instead of Craig Wilson they added Jeromy Burnitz. Burnitz is old, he strikes out just as much as Craig Wilson, and at this point he pretty much sucks, but a lot of Pirates fans watched him put up good numbers from 1997-2001 in Milwaukee. Lots of fans remember seeing him gunning down runners at the plate on BBTN. He's a lefty and yeah, chances are decent that he'll take advantage of PNC Park and hit some dingers next year. Plus, to the casual fan he's a fairly big name that signed to come here to Pittsburgh and he isn't Craig Wilson.
Now in the same offseason we've added two fan favorites in Casey and Randa and two fairly big names in Burnitz and Hernandez, as well as inking Jason Bay for the next four years. The papers keep talking about how great of a guy Sean Casey is and how good he was from '99-'01, the keep talking about Randa's great year in '97 and that magical team. The Tracy quotes about the "intangibles" those guys bring are everywhere. Dave Littlefield is grinning like the Cheshire Cat and talking about their commitment to winning. It's so much all at once that even someone as cynical as I am wants to believe they'll be better
My point today is that Littlefield isn't stupid. He knows that if he doesn't spend the $15 million and he puts out a team that wins 70 games next year, he's probably getting canned. If he spends the money and puts together a team that wins 75 games with players that the fans like Randa and Casey, well it's the system's fault for not letting us spend as much as the Yankees, it might be some of the players fault for underperforming, it was bad luck because people got hurt, but it sure isn't Dave Littlefield's fault. He could put just as much effort into building a team that actually contends, but that involves taking risks. Building a contender in Pittsburgh certainly isn't easy. It first off requires good drafts (not his strong suit, take a look at WTM's site for the draft summaries under Littlefield) and taking a risk on players other teams don't want. Guys like Paul Konerko and AJ Burnett don't sign with teams like the Pirates, so to build a contender certain risks have to be taken. We'd have to settle for guys like Milton Bradley. The problem is, from the front office perspective, Bradley could go insane or get hurt just as easily as he could help the team out. Thus, it's easier to bring in players that appeal to casual fans and to create an illusion of competition than it is to take the risks involved with actually competing.
It's not hard to see the front office trying to create these biases, this illusion. Whenever I read something from the Pirates front office, I feel like it's coming straight from Big Brother. Craig Wilson strikes out too much. Strikeouts are always bad. Jeromy Burnitz is the answer. Strike outs are a necessary evil. I feel like Winston at a Party rally. We are at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia. We are at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
This brings us to the end of the incredibly long part one of this series (I'd say this is the longest segment, but I can't promise anything). I'll use the next post to discuss what I'm going to call the "Wilson Effect" and how it affects Dave Littlefield's talent evaluation.
EDIT(3:41)- I know this comes off like I'm attacking casual Pirate fans for being stupid. I'm not and I don't mean for that to be taken out of this in any way shape or form. Rather, I'm just trying to illustrate how I feel the team is taking advantage of the casual Pirate fan. I fully understand that most people go to a couple games a year, flip on the TV a few nights a week, read about it in the paper and don't think about the Pirates beyond that. I know that most people don't know (or have time to know) what OPS or VORP or Range Factor is or who Bill James is and I'm fine with that. It just seems to me that the front office of the team is preying on that exact fact and using it to their advantage against casual fans.