Thursday, September 01, 2005

September Predictions

No Pirates game today, and it looks like we've got a fun September ahead of us in terms of pennant races, so let's make some predictions.

Let's start with the easy ones:

NL Central Champs: St. Louis Cardinals... duh

AL Central Champs: Chicago White Sox... the Indians don't have quite enough to catch them this year. I think this division is their's to lose next year, though.

NL West Champs: San Diego Padres... as bad as the Padres are, the rest of that division is putrid. No one will catch them.

NL East Champs: Atlanta Braves... a four game lead on September 1st is money in the bank for the Braves.

That leaves us with 2 AL divisions and two wild cards left to fill, divisions first:

AL East Champs: Boston Red Sox... I don't see the Yankees with enough in the tank to catch them. Their lineup is just plain scary.

AL West Champs: Oakland A's... with a healthy Bobby Crosby this is a lock, but it's more of a question with him out for three weeks and Oakland facing a tough schedule. I think they can hang close enough without Crosby and make a push with him. Kind of like the Braves, never count a Billy Beane team out.

And the Wild Cards go to...

NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins... people say they don't have enough offense, I say with Beckett, Burnett, and Willis you don't need much offense. Jeremy Hermida could be the boost they need like Miguel Cabrera was a couple years ago. If he's not enough, Mr. Marlin himself, Jeff Conine is back. Throw in Cabrera and Delgado and this might be the scariest team in the NL.

AL Wild Card: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim... the best team with maybe the best player left. I think the Indians aren't quite there yet and I don't think the Yankees have it in them for a stretch run. And that Vlad guy always seems to get hot at the right time. You could easily switch them and the A's around.

For fun, let's do the playoffs too:

NL Divisional Series:

Marlins over Cardinals in 5... I'm, serious when I say the Marlins might be the best team in the NL. The Cardinals are banged up and not playing that well of late. Their staff beyond Carpenter doesn't scare anyone. The Marlins and their pitching staff are built for the playoffs.

Braves over Padres in 4... honestly, the only reason the Padres are here is because someone has to win the West. We'll say Peavy gets them one win, then it's all Braves from there on out.

AL Divisional Series:

Angels over White Sox in 4... the ChiSox haven't impressed me at all this year, and they've been even less impressive of late. The Angels are good and they have Vlad. Their starters aren't great but then again the White Sox can't hit. Sox win one because of Buehrle.

A's over Red Sox in 5... Crosby will be back for the playoffs and the A's are a much better team with him. The Sox bullpen is flat out scary, and in a Jose Mesa way.

NLCS

Marlins
over Braves in 6... the Braves choke in the playoffs even when they aren't lead by a bunch of rookies. This is where Jeff Francouer turns into Shane Spencer, just watch. MVP: Miguel Cabrera

ALCS

A's over Angels in 7... you can't have starting pitching like the Angels and go to the World Series. MVP: Rich Harden

World Series

Marlins over A's in 6... this is baseball's nightmare World Series. Two small market teams with dominating pitching staffs makes for small TV audiences. But imagine the possibilities, Game 1: Zito vs. Willis, Game 2: Harden vs. Burnett, Game 3: Haren vs. Beckett. In the end it's going to come down to the difference made by Cabrera and Delgado at the plate I think. Oh, and the guy the Marlins tried like hell to trade, but couldn't. MVP: AJ Burnett

So there you go, two small market teams in the Series (this certainly could take place, will Kevin McClatchy be watching?), a nice long playoff run for a guy that deserves it and that I've been way to hard on this year (Jason Kendall, we'll talk more about him later), and the third World Series title for the Marlins since they've come into existence (in '94, two years after our last winning team in '92) and second in three years (after they tore their team apart in '98 then rebuilt them from scrap, that's six years after we starting "rebuilding" for anyone that's counting). Or the Phillies could take theNL Wild Card, the Angels could take the AL West and the Yankees could win the AL Wild Card, leaving me with nothing but a nice big foot in my mouth (which is entirely possible). Either way, it should be fun to watch (more fun to watch than the Pirates, at least).