Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Midseason report: Pitchers

Time for the pitchers. Since we expected more out of them than the hitters, I'll use a slightly different scale to grade them. I'm using Sportsline player links because something is wrong with ESPN and I can't use the game log.

Oliver Perez- We'll start with the positive, somehow he's 6-5. OK, now on to the negative. According to some reports he completely ignored any semblance of off season training the team asked him adhere to in the absence of winter ball. He came into spring training stiff, started late, bombed in the opener, and stood on May 6th at 1-4 with an 8.05 ERA. We skipped him a couple times around in the rotation, and from May 6th to June 26th he went 5-1. That doesn't mean he pitched well. His ERA was 5.18 over that stretch. His K's/9 were 10.1 since May 6th, but his BB/9 were 5.63. After peaking with three straight decent to good starts against Florida, Atlanta, and Tampa, he pitched poorly in his next three starts before KICKING A LAUNDRY CART AND BREAKING HIS PUSH-OFF TOE. Honestly, the only way he could've been worse this year was if he missed the whole year with arm surgery, and even then we'd have the prospects of having him back at full speed next year. I'm still not convinced he's healthy simply because he only seemed to be able to rear back and throw like he did last year for one inning per start this year. I'm afraid he's going to go under the knife and miss all of next year, putting him 2+ years behind schedule. Bottom line: This first half has raised so many questions both physically and mentally about Ollie, that I don't know if I even consider him our ace next year.

Kip Wells-
Kip has the stuff to be an ace. Sometimes he even pitches like one. After starting 0-3 with an ERA of 6.46 Kip went on a tear that put him at 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA, and his record would've been better if not for a couple of blown leads by the bullpen. With Ollie struggling, Kip seemed to be emerging as the top notch starter we all know he can be. We even juggled our rotation to get him two starts in New York and Boston. Kip repaid our new found confidence in him by going 1-5 since then with an ERA of 7.34. That's INCLUDING his complete game shutout of the Phillies. Bottom line: Kip appears to be suffering from Kris Benson and Jason Schmidt disease. Everyone in Pittsburgh is sick of his shenanigans and won't be sad to see him traded, but no one will be surprised when he turns into an ace somewhere else.

Mark Redman-
Another Two-Face. Even with little to no run support at all, Mark was 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA after his start in New York on June 15th. Since then his ERA has jumped almost a full run, he's lost all four starts, and he's walking people at an alarming rate (for a control pitcher) of 4.13 per nine (doubled from his 2.31 rate in his first 14 starts). He has also stated that while he loves playing in Pittsburgh, he won't pick up his option and is hoping to work out an extension with the club. Bottom line: He's been good for us, but pitching is our only strong suit. He's not worth the $7 million per year or so that he'll be asking for. Sell sell sell.

Dave Williams-
Barely beat out Zach Duke and Ryan Vogelsong to be the 5th starter in the spring, but stands at the All-Star break as our ace. That is a testament to how well Williams has pitched, not just how badly everyone else has sucked. He's been consistent this year and has only really made a few starts that could be characterized as "awful." He's already equaled his career win total in the first half. Bottom line: Looks good, but where does he fit in with Burnett and Duke (two other soft-tossing lefties) as two of our top pitching prospects?

Josh Fogg-
I'll admit it, I'm an unabashed Josh Fogg apologist. At the halfway point this year he has what would be the best ERA of his career in Pittsburgh. He's only 4-4, thus putting his streak of double digit win seasons in jeopardy, but he's the only current Pirate starter with a winning record and more than two starts in the big leagues. It may not seem impressive, but that says something considering the teams he's played on. Maybe more importantly, we've only been completely out of one game the whole first half when he was pulled (look at the game log, we've only been blown out in two of his starts, but in one the Cards dropped 9 on us in the 9th). His biggest problem this year has been a penchant for the gopher ball, serving up 16 in the first half when he only gave up 17 all of last year. Bottom line: If he keeps the ball in the park in the second half, look for another winning record and 10+ wins.

The Bullpen and others:
Mike Gonzalez- Started slow, but returned to his own unhittable self for a while (no runs given up between April 13th and May 26th). He's been hampered by a knee injury of late and is on the DL but when he's healthy he's one of the best lefties out of any pen in the league.

John Grabow- He's the first person that's ever unearned a derogatory nickname (Grablow) from me. He's given up a couple runs his last two times out, but his 3.04 ERA is COMPLETELY unexpected after last year's debacle.

Salomon Torres- His numbers arent as good as last year's, but he was hampered by a neck injury early on. He's a decent righty out of the pen, but no one I'd trust with too much.

Rick White- Got off to an awful start, then got better, but has recently made himself a candidate for the Stan Belinda Memorial "I have a low ERA but that's because I don't get charged for runs even when I let everyone on base when I enter the game score" Award.

Brian Meadows and Ryan Vogelsong- They've both sucked something awful, but both rarely get a shot to pitch in an important situation, if that means anything to you.

Jose Mesa- After a good start he's been almost completely unable to hold a one run lead and turns everything into an adventure. A completely over the hill 39 year old has no place in a key position like closer on this team.

Ian Snell- Hasn't been great, but I will refrain from judgement until I see him start regularly (assuming that ever happens).

Zach Duke- OK, it's only two starts, but still...