Picking up the pieces and getting ready for the Cards

So here we stand at the 70 game mark, and we stand pretty disappointed at 32-38. Last year after 70 games we stood at 27-43. We had just finished a terrible stretch of losing 21 out of 25 games cresting at 23-22, the day after the birth of Garrett Mackowiak. This year, we're still mired in a terrible stretch, having lost 8 of 10 since reaching .500 at 30-30. Last year, after dropping the first game to the Reds, we won two more, then faced something similar to what we're facing now, the St. Louis Cardinals (at PNC Park, where they more or less own us, maybe more than they do at Busch). The Cards were 46-29 rolling into that series, they're currently 45-26. They were 5-1 against us prior to that late June series last year, this year they're 5-0 against us. What I'm trying to say is, even with the wins in Cincy the Bucs had dropped 22 of 28 before playing the Cards at almost the same point in the year last year. We swept the Redbirds in that June series, and won 5 more in a row after that. It spurred us on to a roll that got us as close to .500 as 58-61 (meaning we were 31-18 since dropping to 27-43), before bottoming out again. So the question is, is there any hope at all of even splitting this four gamer with St. Louis this weekend? And if so, can this spark a righting of the ship?

Everyone will pitch against the Cards excpet Josh Fogg (at least I'm assuming Fogg since he went today and we don't have an off-day in between). That's curious, as according to retrosheet.org, Fogg only pitched once against the Cards last year (and lost) despite the numerous games we play against them. He's also 0-1 against the Cards this year, so we'll assume there is a reason we make sure Fogg avoids St. Louis (this year we'll say it's his penchant for giving up homers, but he didn't have that last year, only 17 all year, so we'll chalk it up to Jim Edmonds). This means the four best pitchers for us will be going against St. Louis. Trouble is, Kip Wells has been awful lately and awful this whole year against quality opponents, Redman hasn't pitched well on the road (this year or ever) or in his last two starts (he gave up a ton of hits against the Yankees, just not many runs), Perez is still struggling to find his form (showing flashes of it last night but only once or twice recapturing it for a whole game), and Dave Williams is, well, just his usual, solid, but unspectacular self (aka not someone that will single-handedly beat a team like the Cards). Meanwhile we'll see Matt Morris (who at 8-0 is just dying for a loss), Jeff Suppan (imagine Josh Fogg on a good team), Chris Carpenter (very good this year), and probably Marquis (one of those guys with a good record that you aren't sure how good he actually is because he pitches for the Cardinals). We'll miss Mulder, which is good.

We're on the road, but the Cardinals LOVE PNC Park, so that doesn't matter much.

The hitters, well there's no real comparison there. Rolen is back and being eased back into the lineup, so it's tough to tell if he's 100%. Edmonds is having a down year and is still battling a rib problem, which screws with swings a ton, I'd imagine. Other than that, Reggie is having a Reggie year, Albert Pujols is a once in a generation player, and Eckstein is his usual pain in the ass self. Our lineup doesn't really compare to theirs when theirs is clicking, but we were putting up some good numbers until we hit a wall on this last roadtrip (except for last night) and they aren't clicking this year quite like last year (plus, Jason Bay will undoubtedly be the best Canadian on the field, sorry Larry Walker, you're having an awful year).

We're probably a bit better defensively, but then again we're a bit better defensively than everyone, especially if Freddy Sanchez plays third (he's expected back tomorrow or Friday) and Mackowiak plays outfield (where he belongs). So the question is this, can we split? I don't have any delusions of grandeur, I'd like to see a split here and take two of three from the Nats next week to get this hellish month out of the way. And yes, I think we can split, but it all rests on the pitching, simply because for the most part, the Cards pitching isn't overwhelmingly good, well, maybe Carpenter and Morris this year (but they're both very human), and we'll get our runs against them. The Cards have won 13 in a row against us and Matt Morris is 8-0 this year. Both of those streaks will end eventually, and I'm saying the odds are in our favor tomorrow (plus Dave Williams was great against Boston, an equally formidable lineup with a DH no less). That leaves two other possible wins in the series, Kip Wells vs. Jeff Suppan and Oliver Perez vs. Jason Marquis. Both can be advantage us, if the right Kip and Ollie show up. The schedule lightens up a bit after that with the Brewers, Phillies, and Mets (I don't think any of the NL East teams are anything to be afraid of this year). The key is to stop this slide we're on right now from turning into the slide we had last year. That has to start now, because we've lost 8 of ten. If we lose 6 of these next 7 (four in St. Louis and two in Washington, aka what everyone expects of us) we've lost 14 of 17 and it'll be time to hit the panic button. If we can salvage 4 of 7 (two in St. Louis and two in Washington, best case scenario, yes, but also a possibility) I think we'll be back on the right track. Anything in between, well, I'm not sure what that means.